Unfortunately, war rages on into Easter weekend, with grain prices supported by oil.

The grain trade response in the overnight action this morning is obvious, with crude oil spot contract over $111/barrel, with corn and soybean oil market sharply higher, along with wheat doing a bit of recovery as weather models for late next week are not as flush with moisture for the dry Western HRW wheat belt. Markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday, which is elevating positioning in today’s session.

After the market closed yesterday, February crush and grind figures came out largely in line with what the trade had already priced in, so there was little in the report to materially shift sentiment.

Yesterday, the stock market had to digest stronger-than-anticipated economic readings, particularly on labor and consumer spending. Even so, there is some hesitation about how much weight to give those numbers, since part of the data was gathered before the conflict involving Iran began to ripple more broadly through global demand patterns.

Weather remains a major driver of price action, especially in wheat. Some forecast models have recently leaned wetter across the U.S. Plains, which pressured wheat values yesterday. But the broader forecast picture still skews dry, and that helped swing momentum back toward the bullish camp overnight. In South America, Argentina is dealing with the opposite problem, as heavy rainfall is now hitting areas already stressed by drought earlier in the growing season.

The other issue squarely in front of the market today is the war involving Iran. President Trump has continued to suggest that military activity could begin to ease in the near term, but has not offered a clear timetable. That message is being met with skepticism, particularly as several Persian Gulf nations reported additional Iranian attacks overnight. At the same time, the U.S. is deploying more troops into the region, which only adds to doubts that the conflict is close to resolution. And even once fighting does subside, the damage to regional energy logistics is not something the market expects to disappear quickly. Most analysts believe restoring the area’s full energy transport capacity will be a long process measured in years, not months. This all continues in the undertow of support for row crops, with the biofuel aspect helping address fuel supply needs.

An explosive day again yesterday for cattle futures, which will be obviously met with trepidation this morning. The high-end closes after getting very close to setting contract highs with June cattle tapping contract highs, while May feeder cattle got into the gap area of last October’s highs. A sharply lower opening is anticipated due to the rise in crude oil prices this morning.

As far as the cash trade is concerned, yesterday the feeder index rose to $ 366.22, which was again up by $0.89. Negotiated trade fell to a standstill yesterday, with many hoping for a $1-2 increase again. Today, that will be put into question. Cattle have rallied sharply into major resistance points, so that makes them susceptible to a day if crude oil stays sharply higher heading into the three-day weekend, and there’s always the unknowns of these weekends when major price moves have occurred the following Sunday night. When dealing with Iran and the mullahs in control, they have no respect for the Easter holiday, so unfortunately, the war wages on during a holy weekend.