The overnight grain trade is working on a higher weekly close.

The grain trade pushed universally higher overnight, posting gains as fund participation picked up. The buying appears to be driven by a mix of fresh long interest and short covering, as traders adjust their exposure ahead of the weekend. Positioning tied to both month-end and quarter-end is adding to the movement (reducing short exposure), while attention is also shifting toward next week’s USDA releases. Given that setup, it would make sense to see market participants tidy up risk today and then step back until trading resumes in earnest on Wednesday with the start of April.

There is also a geopolitical layer supporting prices. Traders are building in a bit more weekend premium, largely due to uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict. While President Trump has continued to insist that the fighting has ended and that the US has achieved its objective, reports from the Pentagon this morning suggest that another 10,000 troops could be deployed to the region. Trump has also pushed the pause on attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure out to April 6, yet Israeli strikes have continued, and energy markets remain elevated. Broader global trade is clearly not leaning toward a quick resolution, with several markets instead beginning to reflect the possibility of a longer confrontation.

On the USDA front, trade estimates for Tuesday’s reports are now mostly in place. Expectations center on a sizeable acreage reallocation, with roughly 4.4 million acres projected to shift from corn to soybeans for the 2025 crop year. Wheat seedings are seen slipping by about 500,000 acres. For quarterly stocks, the trade is looking for corn inventories to come in nearly 1 billion bushels above a year ago, soybeans to show an increase of about 100,000 bushels, and wheat stocks to hold near last year’s level. Even with several headline numbers in play, corn acreage is likely to draw the sharpest reaction, especially as higher input costs continue to weigh on planting intentions.

Pres. Trump will host an Ag Appreciation Event on the White House lawn later today. The EPA has indicated that it will release the RVO/SRE reallocation mandates by the end of March. It’s anticipated that those details will be released the day before or during the event. One thing is, the RVO mandate has been a well-kept secret amongst Washington insiders. The grain trade is anticipating this potential RVO announcement, with the expectation that his American First campaign will raise the allocation and limit foreign green diesel and foreign feedstocks in our supplies.

The wheat trade is again concerned about the Western Plains, as the current forecast favors the Eastern half of the Plains, which is expected to receive rainfall next week. A Ridge of high pressure across the SE is increasing the northward flow of Gulf moisture into the Central US. Meanwhile, the 10-day forecast for the Western Plains remains dry, and, again, a few light showers are included in the 11-15 day window.

Live and feeder cattle futures moved in the opposite direction yesterday from what has been typical with outside influences. Yesterday, oil was back above $90 while the stock market was under pressure. Despite this, feeder cattle advanced as the March contract expired near cash at $363.52 (the cash feeder index was up $ 1.46 to $363.24). The discount-to-cash reminder shows how the March rally worked on some of the big discounts that April and deferred are carrying.

Yesterday, in the negotiated fed cattle trade, Nebraska saw some trade at steady money of $235 on live, and the dressed trade was $370-372. There was a small test reported in Texas, which was $1 lower than last week at $234. Outside markets are again negative for cattle trends, so a softer start is anticipated. The March Hogs and Pigs report was mostly neutral to expectations, with hogs at 100% of last year, the breeding herd down 1%, and market hogs up 1%. Pork stocks are at their lowest since 1997.

Technically, it would take closes today below 232.50 in June cattle and 348.00 on May feeders to create another negative technical picture development. A steady, better close today would indicate the cattle market is standing on its own against outside influences and concerns about a slowing economy, with sticky inflation and fuel prices remaining elevated for some time. These higher fuel prices work their way into the food chain, with delivery companies initiating fuel surcharges.