Four full trading days until the March 31 Stocks and Acreage report.

There was mixed overnight trade, with corn and wheat remaining soft, following crude oil prices, which pushed low late yesterday when Pres. Trump stated that we have some form of a piece arrangement in place with Iran. Soybeans found a bid amid what still appears to be strong export demand. This is acknowledged by superb export inspection numbers being revealed every Monday. In the early morning hours today, around 7:16 a.m. CDST, Iran says we do not have a deal, which helped crude oil recover $2.00 of overnight losses and trimmed stock equity gains. This put a small bid in corn and wheat to come off their lows before the morning session ended.

Weekly ethanol data will be released this morning, but the main driver of the market is again likely to be the US/Iran war. And its impact on managed money flow. Israel and Iran have not slowed their attacks, and the US is deploying more troops to the region, indicating that even if talks are taking place, they do not appear positive. Energy futures may be lower this morning, but still remain elevated, with little relief at the pump anytime soon. Economists are becoming worried about all markets moving forward, especially where in many places in the country, gasoline prices spiked $1.00 a gallon, and now airplane fares are set to rise 22% do to the high fuel costs (the CEO of United Airlines yesterday stated they are planning for elevated fuel values through the rest of the year).

Ukraine is boasting that its 2026 corn crop estimate will be 31-32 MMTs compared to last year’s 31 MMTs. This is interesting for them to say, given that Russia has cut off all ammonium sulfate as of this week for them. Their exports to Europe are down 2.6 MMTs year to date.

Today, we are expected to hear from the EPA to announce its nationwide E-15 ethanol-blend waiver for summer use at the CERAWeek Conference in Houston. This is a temporary emergency action and does not constitute finalization of the E-15 voluntary blending legislation sought by biofuel producers in corn-growing states. Still waiting for when the White House and the EPA will announce their 2026-2027 RVO/SRE Re-allocations.

There are US troops on the way from Fort Bragg, likely to meet the USS Tripoli, which already has 2,500 Marines on board, and be airdropped onto the cliffs of the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran is serious about its statement this morning that they are not negotiating, then the fighting will, as US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Sunday, likely escalate before it can de-escalate. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and could remain closed for several weeks. This will keep oil prices elevated if not recover back over 100, likely elevating grain prices again. This is a very fluid situation. Yes, the pun is intended.

Yesterday was a mixed day for live cattle, with feeder cattle sliding from strong gains, still closing higher by $2.00. Technical resistance values at the end of the day still held. March feeders are now near the cash index, while deferred’ s continue the same game of big discounts to cash. Box beef did show choice picking up $0.78 while select gained $0.67.

Yesterday’s Cold Storage report for February beef stocks reported off 3% from January and are 6% below the year ago at 413 million pounds. This should make February the tightest since 2014. The data was considered within the range of estimates and is neutral. The stock market is higher this morning, suggesting cattle futures may be in a positive tone today. Closes above yesterday’s highs for live and feeder cattle could spark a strong technical recovery rally, with 240 being the target for June, and 360-361 for May feeders. Today is a critical day on the charts.