When Crude Moves, Everything Moves
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Crude Oil
Crude oil exploded overnight toward $120 per barrel before retreating sharply after discussion of strategic reserve releases from G7 nations.
The market briefly approached key technical retracement levels tied to previous historic highs near $148 in 2008.
Late session selling pushed crude back near $85 as comments about a potential end to the war surfaced.
Despite reserve releases, the key concern remains whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open to maintain global oil flow.
Corn
Corn surged overnight in a classic wave three technical rally fueled by the spike in crude oil prices.
The market reached a high near 4.53 before retreating late in the session.
A wave four pullback may occur before the market attempts another rally ahead of the March 31 acreage report.
Fertilizer availability remains a growing concern, especially with supply flows through the Persian Gulf uncertain.
Soybeans
Soybeans reached the projected measured move target near 12.15 early in the session before spiking above 12.30 and closing near session lows.
Technical support is developing near 11.85 with stronger support around 11.75.
Momentum from the February low remains intact unless prices fall below these key levels.
Potential Chinese buying ahead of late March political meetings could provide additional support.
Cattle
Live cattle futures dropped limit down during the session before recovering slightly as stock markets improved late in the day.
Technical structures continue to suggest downside risk with possible continuation of a larger corrective pattern.
Labor strike concerns at a major Colorado processing facility remain a developing factor for the market.
Feeder Cattle
Feeder cattle opened sharply lower but managed to close above last week’s lows, allowing for a short term recovery bounce.
However, the 20 day moving average continues to slope downward and remains strong resistance.
A recovery rally is expected to remain capped below the 360 area if the developing head and shoulders pattern continues.
Market Outlook
Energy market volatility remains the dominant driver across commodities.
Strategic reserve releases may temporarily calm crude prices, but supply risks through the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.
If oil volatility continues, grain markets could see additional large swings in both directions in the days ahead.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.