Energy and fertilizer values force grains higher overnight.

Grain futures pushed higher again in the night session, following a resurgence in crude oil prices overnight, as the White House's plan to help stem oil prices was pulled off the table. This has crude oil pushing to the $87 range, which hasn’t been seen since 2022. This buying is coming from forward purchasing by airlines, trucking companies, farmers, and all parties concerned about its future availability, who are rushing to procure forward supplies. The Trump administration is still working on a policy to help alleviate surging world energy prices. The strategic reserve is part of the plan, but it was originally put together in its current form to backstop foreign oil purchases in the event of a Force Majeure.

Getting the Straits of Hormuz to see traffic moving again is the crux of the energy fears. Many installations are filling up their storage capacity and will have to curtail production, which, in itself, is restricting oil production. Movement of oil is necessary to keep production on track at 100 Mil barrels a day. This is why oil prices continue to firm is a fear that traffic is not moving soon enough or heading for the long transit around the tip of Africa.

The monthly employment numbers came out this morning and were very weak. We had a job loss of 92,000, versus an estimate of a gain of 50,000 in nonfarm payrolls. This raised the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.4%. It’s a big miss for the February jobs data expectations. This softened the US dollar a bit on the data, as overnight treasury values softened interest rates slightly compared to the rise that was again starting to price higher in the overnight session.

Next week, on Tuesday, is the monthly March WASDE report, which, on a scale of 1 to 10, is around 5. It is the March 31 acreage data that carries the punch. For now, rising perjury prices and the pinch on fertilizer have also lifted new-crop values to new contract highs. The negative mindset is now shifting, as we had been anticipating grain values would advance in March. The only question was: what can cause the lift? And now that we know the energy values, more importantly, fertilizer has world production capabilities on edge.

Cattle futures held tough yesterday when oil prices were firm and the stock market reflecting weakness, but today’s sharp losses in the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ, along with oil values sharply higher again ytoday will create a lower opening. Earlier this week, lower openings were the low of the day, with the market recovering for the rest of the session. That may be difficult today. Outside influences are heavy, and those will likely rule the day rather than concerns about tight cattle numbers.

Yesterday’s feeder index was again off $0.34 at $368.59, while box beef had choice gaining $1.68 and select up $0.26. Not only are imports on the rise, but beef exports are again lagging. After four days of strength this week, the cattle market will find out today if there is raw value in the recovery. Elevated energy values, a weakening stock market, and poor job numbers are going to make it difficult for the cattle market to push against today.