Weekly and monthly chart gains in the grain complex today look potentially impressive. That is, if the day selling vigilantes lose their influence today.

Grain futures found follow-through buying last night as we roll into the end of the month. Wheat futures led the overnight strength, recapturing the bulk of their losses on the week for Kansas City wheat while Chicago wheat prices set new highs. This is following French milling wheat, which bolted overnight to new annual highs for the year, trading up $with 3.75 MT at $2 01.50. The gain is similar to $0.12/bushel in strength.

This week’s trade is tied to the price discovery via technicals and fun positioning. Support is slowly building amid South American crop updates as more analysts trim production forecasts. Argentine conditions continue to deteriorate, with the soybean crop now rated just 26% good to excellent and 29% poor to very poor. Forecasts offer little meaningful relief, keeping stress levels elevated. Attention is also shifting to Brazil’s safrinha corn crop, where planting delays are becoming a concern. Only about half of the crop is seeded, and the ideal window for peak yields has largely passed, raising questions about final production.

Even so, current reductions to South American output remain modest and have not sparked a strong market reaction. What they have done is discourage additional fund selling, which in itself is constructive. The EPA’s move to grant additional biofuel waivers to large refiners is also lending support. Given strong domestic crush demand and rising soybean oil inventories, the additional flexibility in the biofuel space is viewed as necessary and broadly supportive to the soy complex.

Cattle prices produced severe technical damage on the chart yesterday, and a recovery rally is needed immediately, or index fund liquidation will persist into the month-end closing prices. Uncertainty is building around the Greeley, Colorado, fed cattle slaughter facility as the UFCW union prepares to decide whether to move forward with a strike. Union officials have spent the week holding registration sessions so members can enroll for strike pay should a walkout be called. The final opportunity to sign up wrapped up last night at 7 p.m. Mountain Time. There is no shortage of opinions circulating throughout the trade about what may happen next, but at this point, it remains purely speculative. No formal decision has been announced, leaving the market waiting for confirmation before reacting.

Some negotiated fed cattle trading occurred yesterday, and Packers picked up some leverage. Sales in the north softened by $2-4, with prices at $243-245. Meanwhile, dressed sales dipped $5 at $388. In Kansas, a few sales were quoted at $243, which should be off $6 since last week.

The next level of significant support for April live cattle to hold is 233-234. In yesterday afternoon’s video, we showed significant support for April feeder cattle at 354-355. Upside resistance now for April feeder cattle to attack and will likely be difficult to overcome is 362-363. The charts are starting to paint the picture of a Head and Shoulders top, which defies logic with the tight cattle numbers. But outside influences that I have warned could create a Black Swan event are coming together like a swarm of locusts. April cattle need to be back above 240 at today’s close, as well as April feeder cattle back above 363. It’s a weekly and monthly close today, and those data points are important as we roll into next week.