Large export sales numbers have the grain trade near weekly highs this morning.

This morning’s grain trade is higher across the board, in anticipation of strong export sales numbers being released. Those numbers were solid with corn having a massive rebound of exports after the holidays at 4.01 MMTs, soybeans at 2.115 MMTs, and even the wheat was respectable at 618,100 MTs.

In the soybean market, besides China, which is finishing up its 12 MMT obligation, we have seen buyers such as Egypt, Japan, and the Netherlands taking beans. In corn, a sizable buyer was Colombia, with Japan and Korea, along with Vietnam, making large purchases. The cheap corn the USDA put on sale after the January 12 WASDE crop report has brought in a slew of interest.

In South America, hot, dry conditions remain prevalent and are now affecting Argentine crops. The second week of lower ratings for the Argentine soybean crop is underway, with the southern Córdoba region also reporting corn losses. Rains are in the forecast, as usual, but some of these areas are starting to become too late provide crop relief. Speaking of cold in the US, it’s also a factor in China and Russia, where stress is being noted on uncovered wheat crops.

In the outside markets, the public enthusiasm for gold and silver has the markets almost simultaneously challenging milestones, with gold coming up just short of 5000, and silver almost tagging $100 an ounce this morning. Eventually, grains will look cheap compared to metals, and inflation-driven buying by funds will at least cause them to exit their short positions. Strength in the Brazilian real is also elevating bean prices in Brazil, helping make US beans a bit more competitive.

Live and feeder cattle futures consolidated yesterday, after recovering a portion of last Friday’s sharp losses. The COF report after 00 p.m. has the trade on hold, despite expectations of a friendly report. The data this afternoon anticipates On Feed at 96.8%, Placements at 93.5%, and Marketings at 101.5% of a year ago's level. The data, if realized, is bullish, but apparently priced in by the trade. What’s interesting about this is that, despite the extremely cold weather, the consolidation could not push February live cattle to new recovery highs.

The cash feeder index yesterday dropped $2.18 and is at $365.23. This finally has January feeders closing the gap significantly, as next week it has to align by Friday. Meanwhile, box beef values had choice climbing $1.34 while select declined $0.72. Still, both prices are significantly higher than last year, with the choice up $35 and the select up $43.

The battle lines are drawn: resistance for April cattle at 239.00-240.00, with support at 231.50. March feeder cattle have resistance developed at 361, with major resistance at 365. Meanwhile, support is at 357.00, with the critical line-in-the-sand support at 353.35.