Crop Report out at 11:00 CDST today.

Grain futures are solidly higher in overnight trade as managed money rotates back into safe‑haven positions, including commodities. Precious metals are leading the gains, with gold up over $120 and silver climbing nearly $6, reflecting broad risk pricing tied to geopolitical tensions. Markets are grappling with rising uncertainty around U.S. involvement in Venezuela and other global hotspots, and that is spilling into ag trade.

Short covering is also evident ahead of today’s big USDA data dump. The department is set to release the January WASDE report, quarterly stocks, and U.S. winter wheat seedings at 12:00 p.m. ET (11:00 a.m. CT), one of the most consequential report days of the year. These reports will finalize U.S. production data from last fall’s harvest and update stocks and sowings, offering fresh fundamental inputs for price discovery heading into 2026’s planting season.

Soybeans are picking up extra support from export news. Reports out of the trade desk suggest China booked around 10 U.S. soybean vessels last Friday, including some from the Pacific Northwest, moving Beijing closer to its near‑term purchase commitments. Confirming this in the flash sales report this morning will be a key early mover for the complex.

In geopolitical headlines, Ukraine says it struck Russian offshore oil facilities over the weekend, though the energy markets aren’t reacting sharply to that news yet. The grain trade continues to receive support due to persistent rainfall deficits in southern Argentina, along with active export demand for soybeans and corn. Feed grain demand seems to be rising, and we are seeing basis values firming for corn.

The crop production data is out at 11:00 a.m. today as a corn yield of 184 BPA and soybeans at 52.7 BPA is estimated. Both are down modestly from the November 14 yield data. The larger question is whether the corn carryout will decline to near 1.9 billion bu and soybeans to below 290 million bu, thereby creating a favorable price response?

While the cash trade improved last week, live and feeder cattle futures closed lower on the week. Both futures markets had set weekly highs early in the week and responded poorly into Friday. Last week, Mexico lowered import tariffs on Brazilian beef, thereby procuring supplies outside US trade, as feeders remain blocked from entering the US. Additionally, the dairy industry is seeking to promote Make More Ground Beef for America by instituting a program in which the government will help pay for the extra calling of older cows. This may not resonate with the president or Congress, as it would entail funding a program that would keep beef prices inflated.

Cattle slaughter last week was 38,000 head less than last year and totaled 553,000 head. This would be 6% less than a year ago. Box beef values did turn higher last week but Packers remain in the red. The commitment of trader’s report released showed index funds are not long 94,761 contracts compared to 144,000 a year ago.

Fed live cattle have initial strong support at 231.50-232, with major support at 228.50. Meanwhile to 38-239 remains strong resistance. March feeder cattle have revealed their resistance at 359.360, while initial support comes in at 352, with major support at 348.50-349.