The last trading day of the year is upon us. Happy New Year's Eve!

Happy New Year’s Eve to everyone!! With gratitude, we would like to thank you for the past year and for allowing us to provide you with morning information ahead of the bell, along with interpretations of market movements in the afternoon. The New Year brings about new expectations, as things rarely stay the same. Here’s to the new challenges and opportunities that 2026 brings.

With limited fresh news and extremely thin holiday trade, today’s market is expected to focus heavily on end-of-year positioning. Participation remains light as many traders have already stepped aside for the remainder of the week. We will see a full trading session today, followed by a market closure tomorrow, then a full session resumes Friday morning. However, trading volume is unlikely to return to normal levels until after the New Year—most likely not until the release of the January 12 USDA WASDE report.

This morning’s export sales data had corn sales again climbing at 87 Mil Bu (2.20 MMT) versus 69 Bill last week. Meanwhile, soybean and wheat sales did decline as they do during the holiday season. For deliveries, January soybeans at one thousand 62 contracts delivered with ADM posting 681 of them. With no strong stoppers, this softened the soybean contracts into the evening. On the flipside, we should see additional flash soybean sales to China announced on the daily system today.

That January Crop Report (Jan 12) is one of the most closely watched of the year. It includes final production data for the previous crop year, along with quarterly grain stocks, making it a major market mover. Until then, attention will stay centered on developments in South America and the early results from Brazil’s soybean harvest. While harvest is just beginning, initial yield reports suggest the potential for a large crop. In contrast, Argentina is facing expanding weather-related stress. Several key production zones haven’t seen rain in a month, heightening concern over crop development as hot, dry conditions persist.

Black Sea fighting is continuing to escalate, showing a notable reduction in exports from the region from both Ukraine and Russia. Offsetting a bit is the large Argentine wheat crop that is heavy into the export channel currently. For corn though, we are seeing our export loadings up 10.2 MMTs over last year and a record into the end of the year. Ethanol margins are holding at 5-$0.10/gallon and demand is remaining record high. Meanwhile or soybean interior basis is firming as the crush remains active and farmer sales have slowed after the spike rally in November.

With fundamental headlines scarce, managed money flow will likely be the dominant driver of market direction today. Traders will also watch for the weekly ethanol production report for any surprises, though it’s unlikely to shift market sentiment on its own significantly.

Live and feeder cattle futures pushed higher yesterday with a firm start anticipated this morning. Ahead of expiration a day, December cattle gained two dollars and is pricing in what now appears to be a weekly gain in the cash market of potentially $2-3 dollars. Feeder cattle at stronger gains, but the cash feeder index tumbled $7.96 on Tuesday, putting the January board now premium to the cash index.

Show list offerings are larger this week but demand will grow as packers are bidding for next week’s full slaughter schedule. Offers in the South are quoted at $232, which would be a gain of $3, in line with the expiring December live cattle contract.

Live cattle February was begrudgingly pulled higher yesterday, closer to resistance at 232, while March feeder cattle touched into the continuation gap, and simultaneously plugging its personal gap on its own chart. The December seasonal that is strong for cattle to move higher starts to end after today, as the first 8-days of the trading year are notorious for finding a board price high and subsequent softening in price that typically occurs into February.