Turnaround Tuesday is trying to make an appearance.

Futures are mixed this morning, with consolidation following yesterday’s sell-off. Yesterday’s losses were not so much from fresh selling but rather from profit-taking on existing positions. This was most notable in the outside markets, primarily the precious metals, with several contracts seeing sharp declines. This pressure spilled over into the ag sector and was a primary cause of our losses in corn, soybeans, and wheat.

 

This morning, we are seeing the markets stabilize with the soy complex turning higher. Interesting note on exports: we have now seen our exports top 1 billion bu before the end of the year. This is the first time it has ever happened. Exports are up 66% over last year. Many want to call this front-loading. That certainly can be the case, but to be this dramatic tells you we own the corn market, and we own it until June. Ethanol margins continue to hold at five cents/gallon.

 

More attention is being paid to South American weather as Argentina's growing conditions deteriorate. Argentina is forecast to receive just 50% of its normal precipitation over the next two weeks with climbing temperatures, verifying a building La Niña event.

 

Geopolitical hot spots this morning include the Black Sea, China is holding military drills around Taiwan, and the US is now attacking targets in Venezuela. While these are not impacting production, they are an issue in grain logistics.

 

More year-end positioning is given in today’s session, as is positioning for first notice day on the January contracts. US weather will also affect cash markets, as interior movement is slowing more than usual for this time of year.

 

Yesterday’s cattle trade had seen an early push higher with feeder cattle lifting to another new post-November crash high, due to the sharp rise in the feeder cattle index, but still slipped back into the close, as live cattle drifted. The consolidation on the board continues with a lack of money morning to make a new commitment before the end of the tax year.

 

December cattle is getting ready for expiration, and it’s hinting that cash cattle trade will be somewhere near steady or $1.00 lower for the week. Yesterday’s cash feeder index jumped a remarkable dollar $6.68 to $356. This sharp rise allowed feeders to push a new December high but not hold into the close.

 

The battle lines are drawn for support/resistance. February live cattle have resistance at 232.00, with significant support at 226.00. In March feeder cattle, resistance is 344-348, with support at 336-337.