The grain trade is firm for a Christmas Eve Day morning start.

Merry Christmas Eve to you and your family! The markets close at what12:05 p.m. CT for grains and 12:15 CT for livestock today and will reopen agricultural markets at regular times on Friday for a full trading session. The January soybean options expire on Friday, with first notice day delivery on December 31.

The grain trade has continued its unabated rally since Monday, when Tuesday typically would’ve done something to counter it, and corn is trading back at its resistance near 450. At the same time, soybeans have recovered almost $0.15 from their lows made last Friday. Corn exports remain optimistic and above expectations, and the corn grind is still running at a record pace, which the USDA will need to account for in the January 12 WASDE crop production report.

Wheat has recovered by almost $0.20 in Chicago, with a $0.30 rally in Kansas City wheat, as Russia continues its attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure and ports. The Ukraine Farm Union reports that only 375,000 MT of wheat has been exported, when 1 MMT would already have been exported in December, and that commitments for corn exports are 1-1.5 MMT, versus the typical 2 MMT at this time.

Weather forecasts for South America indicate rainfall in the 11-15 day window for Argentina, as dryness has set in across southern Argentina. Meanwhile, the soybean crop in Brazil continues to grow with mostly positive weather forecasts for production.

Soybean oil is stabilizing in price but remains reluctant to rally until we receive information from the Trump administration on 45Z credit news, which is expected to be released before the end of the year.

Yesterday, the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was released. All Hogs are put at 100.6% of year ago versus estimates of 99.1%. Kept for Breeding was 99.1% versus estimates of 99.1, and Kept for Marketing was 100.8% versus the estimate of 99.2%. The data was considered negative to pre-report estimates, with a softer indication of $1.00-2.00 anticipated.

Live and feeder cattle prices worked lower yesterday, with rumors that bids in the north would be lower on the week if cattle were to be procured. Feeder cattle found support on the cash feeder index, which continues to climb, and yesterday was higher by $1.17 at $353.08. Live cattle cash trade will break out on Friday as it prepares for the new year, with slow production lines.

The December Cold Storage report showed that beef stocks at the end of November increased for the third consecutive month, up 3% to a 9-month high of 426 Mil pounds. It was still the smallest November stocks figure since 2015 and the second-lowest since 2003. Estimates were near expectations, and marks that stocks are still tight, along with cattle numbers, as we go into 2026. The cattle trade needs to be active and supportive today in the futures market, as technical triggers will be hit if live cattle February closes below 226 and feeder cattle March closes below 335.