Soybeans find a steady start to the morning for the first time in two weeks.
Corn and soybeans are trading narrowly mixed in the overnight session, while wheat is facing a bit more selling pressure. News flow remains light and is expected to stay that way through much of the week. Today brings the November NOPA crush report, with the rest of the week featuring standard data releases but no major reports for the ag sector.
This is the final full trading week of the year, which often leads to increased position-squaring. Friday’s sharp selloff was triggered by news that renewable fuel blending mandates for 2026 likely won’t be issued before year-end. This has renewed demand concerns in the biofuel space, despite recent strength in export demand.
Last week saw a flurry of flash sales, but markets shrugged them off given the aggressive U.S. export forecasts, particularly the record 3.2 billion bushel target for corn. South American weather has become less threatening for now, though La Niña patterns continue to raise concerns over drought risk in Argentina.
In the Black Sea, conflict continues without signs of easing, which is expected to support U.S. export demand. Meanwhile, U.S. cash markets are firming as buyers build inventory ahead of the holidays. Harsh winter weather is also slowing movement, especially due to extreme cold. River basis levels are strengthening alongside renewed export interest.
Another higher recovery week for the cash livestock and feeder cattle trade. Negotiated live trade was mainly in the 230 range last week in the north and the south, while the cash feeder index moved higher last week and is currently near $3 47. Last week’s cattle slaughter was off 4000 head at 596,000, and 14,000 head less than a year ago. The choice cutout moved lower last week by $4.00, and estimated slaughter margins fell to a $36/head loss.
Last week Thursday, live cattle February stalled at the technical resistance level of 231-232, and feeder cattle stalled inside its large chart gap at 345, suggesting a potential retreat in the making. Fed cattle should have support at 226.00-227.00, while feeder cattle would target 331-332 for support.