Soybean prices recover on hopes of Chinese flash sales.

We have a broadly mixed market this morning with wheat losses around a nickel while soybeans gained a nickel. Corn obviously stuck in the middle. This back and forth trade has become routine and will only increase over the next few weeks. We are one week away from the December WASDE report, and while typically a non-event, this report will likely receive more attention given the lack of fresh news in the market. Most interest will fall on demand this month, especially following the return of China to the US export market. 

Year-end positioning is starting to take shape as managed money begins to re-balance portfolios ahead of the close of 2025. Market fundamentals remain largely steady this morning, with U.S. export demand and South American weather trends continuing to dominate headlines. Flash sales from the U.S. have been scattered over the past week, and more are anticipated.

Concerns over shipping routes in the Black Sea are once again steering demand toward U.S. origins, potentially boosting export activity as Black Sea freight spikes higher. Meanwhile, dry conditions are spreading across parts of South America, but forecasts are calling for timely rainfall that could stabilize crop prospects. For now, traders appear content to stay sidelined, waiting for clearer signals before making any major shifts in positioning.

The standout fact that should be understood is that year-to-date corn exports are at 746.7 Mil Bu. That’s up 71% from last year. This is considerably more than just frontloading. This is a trend that, even though it may not be sustainable later in the second quarter, will certainly force WASDE to increase usage, putting downward pressure on carryout.

Wheat prices are softening on a record wheat crop coming out of Argentina. But the reality is, there is a lot of low-protein wheat that will come into play and end up in feed rations. Still, the board always softens on the talk of record crops.

Cattle futures corrected last week’s late spike higher on light volume, with feeder cattle finding retracement support in the 319-320 range, while February cattle stabilized just below 215. The cash feeder index rose $0.94 yesterday to 319.70, off $21 from the prior week. The cash trade for live cattle was 7% below the year-ago level, the smallest since December 2024.

The cash trade is hoping to be steady this week, with recovery rallies having a seasonal potential to occur from next week into the end of the year. Constant fear of when the USDA will accept terms from Mexico that are satisfying enough to open the border to the flow of feeder cattle in the southern feedlots. It will likely occur sometime next year, but given the fact that it is winter, pressure will build as the screwworm infestations are pushed much farther south in Mexico.