Soybeans retreat from recent gains, awaiting further Chinese buying.

This morning’s grain trade has soybeans on retreat, as the market has initially absorbed the two MMTs of beans purchased by China, amid the prevailing bearish fringe's constant doubt that they will do any more the rest of this year. As China fulfills its agreement, the soybean carryout will further tighten keeping a floor under the market.

The Brazilian soybean crop estimate for this year is now seeing some analysts back off their expectations, at least minimally, indicating that the crop on paper is as large as it is going to get for now. Domestic demand is not slowing, with new crush plants online and witnessed by the record NOPA number released earlier this week.

Given the recent price rise recovery after the USDA crop report last Friday, country movement has perked up a bit this week, bringing hedge pressure into the trade. That’s allowing for mixed morning this morning while wheat shrugs off selling pressure that developed last Friday’s increased wheat carryout numbers. Also there are a few rumors that China is interested in US wheat.

Next week, Friday is first notice day for the December grain contracts, but with Thursday being Thanksgiving, you’ll start to see more positions rolling out of December into March starting this week.

Yesterday’s cattle trade consolidated the recent recovery from Monday’s swift reversal higher, indicating major support is in the 215 range for live cattle and 310 value for January feeder cattle. Box beef was mixed with choice, picking up $1.53, while select drifted $1.35. November feeder cattle expire on Thursday, and yesterday the feeder index was off $2.40 at $339.49.

This Friday will be back on track with a November Cattle on Feed report after the close. It’ll reflect a combination of September and October data sets. Early anticipation is for the October marketing rate at 92%, placements at 92% and the November one feedlot inventory at 98%. The expected feedlot inventory of 11.7 Mil head would be the smallest since 2018.