Crop report out today at 11:00 a.m.

This morning’s grain trade is firmer to higher despite outside-market chaos, with metals, cryptocurrencies, and equities on heavy risk-off. Today’s the long-awaited WASDE and USDA crop production data numbers, along with flash sales, that will create chaos today. Volatility alerts should be high.

The market is bracing for an influx of fresh information, and traders will have plenty to digest. Yesterday’s session followed a now-familiar pattern, with buying interest building as the day wore on. This uptick in buying came alongside a decline in outside markets, triggered by comments from economists and Federal Reserve officials suggesting interest rates may remain unchanged at the December meeting.

Two of the most heavily scrutinized components in today’s USDA report will be soybean export demand and corn feed usage. These categories have seen a wide range of trade expectations in recent weeks, making any adjustments highly impactful to market direction. In addition to the report, we’ll also get a backlog of flash sales data this morning, which could provide further clarity on recent export activity.

With USDA data front and center today, and traders positioning ahead of the weekend, market direction will likely hinge on how the numbers reconcile with current assumptions, especially around export strength and domestic feed demand.

While inflation continues to rise, dampening hopes for a rate cut, recent labor data weakness could still justify one. The conflicting signals are contributing to broader uncertainty, prompting managed money to reduce exposure to more volatile sectors and shift toward commodities. That rotation is lending support to the grain markets, especially as funds seek out relative value in less interest-rate-sensitive assets.

It is worth noting that crude oil is sharply higher today as Ukraine struck a key Russian port overnight in Novorossiysk, which exports 2% of the global crude oil, which is two Mil barrels a day. It’s also a key export port for Russian grain. The attack has halted crude oil exports from the port, while damage assessments of the grain export facilities, which are located farther from the oil, indicate that everything is in working order. Still, wheat prices firmed on this news. Seeing the fighting escalate, could be a risk for wheat export ports.

Live and feeder cattle futures tumbled yesterday, with the feeder cattle market going down the $9.25 limit. This has expanded limits this morning for live cattle at $10.75, while feeder cattle are $13.75. Growing fears that Pres. Trump will follow through on lowering tariffs on Brazilian beef, which were put in place on July 1 at 50%, and will allow Brazilian beef exports to again ramp back up to where they were earlier in the year.

The negotiated cattle market traded yesterday but fell sharply, with sales in the north off $5 at $225, while the dressed trade was $4-9 lower at $350-355. The South saw a trade down $3, to $228. Box beef prices continue to decline, with choice slipping $0.88 yesterday, but select dropped $ to $4.91. Earlier this week, tariffs on coffee and bananas were lowered. It’s highly likely that trade rumors of a reduction in Brazilian beef tariffs from 50% to 10% will surface soon. Downside targets on the charts suggest 207-210 on December live cattle, while feeder cattle target 295-305.