Crop report preview for Friday
The grain trade experienced a mixed start to the week, with initial pressure leading to lower prices in wheat, soybeans, and corn. However, buying interest in corn and recoveries in wheat and soybeans led to a positive turnaround. The market anticipates lower yields for corn and soybeans in the upcoming USDA crop report on November 14.
Soybeans are trading at higher-than-expected prices, while corn is holding above predictions. The wheat market saw a retreat after China's significant purchases, with attention now on the next major buyer. Overall, the grain trade is maintaining recent strength.
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Macro Market Recap
Corn:
Opened softer but turned higher as morning buying surfaced.
Corn continues holding the 430 range despite seasonal expectations for far lower prices.
Trade anticipates Friday’s USDA report will show reduced yields, though export adjustments could offset carryout tightening.
Market staying in the upper end of its recent two-week range.
Soybeans:
Started lower but recovered nearly all losses by midday.
Soybeans are trading in the top third of their recent pricing band, reflecting steady demand and expectations for a friendlier yield number Friday.
USDA’s handling of export estimates could determine whether beans can break higher.
Wheat:
Retraced midweek gains after China’s purchase of 60,000 MT of soft wheat and 60,000 MT of hard red spring wheat last week.
Market now waits for the next major buyer to emerge.
Still holding broader strength as the grain complex recovers from early selling.
USDA Crop Report Outlook:
Friday brings the first USDA supply-demand and crop production numbers in two months due to delayed October data.
Trade broadly expects yield reductions in both corn and soybeans.
Key question: Will USDA trim export projections to maintain comfortable carryout levels?
Overall:
Grain markets showed resilience today, reversing early weakness and holding their recent strength as traders position ahead of Friday’s long-anticipated report.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
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