Wheat prices lead overnight weakness

After another firm overnight trend, selling gave way overnight, led by wheat. Starting to see position building ahead of Friday’s WASDE update, and with a lack of Chinese buying confirmation, the trade is finding liquidation of recent length in the ongoing play.

The U.S. government appears to be nearing a resolution to its shutdown, which would allow for the return of key market data releases across sectors. In the ag space, the immediate focus will be on the export sales data that has been delayed for nearly six weeks. This backlog could offer important insight into demand trends, particularly for corn and soybeans.

In the broader financial markets, attention is shifting toward labor statistics, especially in light of rising layoff announcements from major companies. More job cuts are expected, and the labor data will be closely watched for signs of economic softening.

Meanwhile, the ongoing Goldman Roll is adding to market volatility, contributing to choppy trade across the board. As that activity wraps up, attention is increasingly turning toward South American weather, where crops are in a critical stage of development. Dry conditions are being reported in more regions of Brazil, with some areas experiencing poor germination and early replanting efforts. Despite these issues, analysts continue to raise crop estimates, suggesting confidence in broader growing conditions.

From a technical standpoint, indicators our supportive, helping to provide a foundation underneath prices. January soybean futures are approaching a technical convergence point, which could be significant for short-term direction and should be monitored closely. A price break under yesterday’s low of 1119 signals a rechallenge of 1100.

Weekly ethanol data is expected this morning, and the market is hoping to see a rebound in export demand to help offset the recent lack of fresh U.S.-China agricultural trade announcements. The return of government data and developments in both global weather and demand could bring sharper direction to the market in the coming days.

After a sharply higher start on Tuesday, cattle futures turned softer first, while feeder cattle closed higher but near the lowest levels of the session. The cash feeder index was off $1.61 at $342.76, which was still a premium over the November futures. There are five days left for November feeder cattle futures, which expire on November 20. Then the January contract will come on, which is currently carrying a considerable discount to the cash index. On November 21, all 2026 feeder cattle future contracts will be at extreme discounts to the cash market compared to today if the cash feeder trade has stabilized.

Some cattle traded in Iowa yesterday at $227 live, signaling a steady start to the week. Southern cattle are asking $232, up $2 from last week. Nearby support under the market for December cattle is near 224, whereas January feeder cattle is a bit lower, near 324.