Cattle kicks higher, Grains hold the line

Macro Market Recap

Cattle:
Feeder cattle surged early but closed weak near session lows, suggesting a two to three day bear market bounce.
Brazilian tariff uncertainty remains the key overhang.
Analysts see potential A-B-C corrective wave forming, with possible recovery toward 345 resistance before resuming lower.
Cash trade uncertain; steady to slightly weaker expected. Tight supplies could support a B-wave recovery if tariffs remain intact.

Feeder Cattle:
Technical support seen around 321–324; upside may test 342–345 if buyers return.
January feeder futures are the key continuation contract to monitor.

Live Cattle:
Likely completed a five-wave decline with an early B-wave bounce underway.
Without tariff relief, prices could slide back toward the 208–210 range in a final C-wave later this year.

Soybeans:
European delay on deforestation rule for South American imports initially pressured futures, but late buying reversed losses.
Wave structure suggests either a completed ABC correction or start of a fifth-wave advance.
A close above 1137 would confirm upside continuation toward 1191–1200.
Bean oil improving; meal consolidating after strong advance.

Corn:
Technical rebound from 426–426¼ lows with strength above 200-day moving average signals renewed momentum.
Traders anticipate a friendly USDA crop report Friday, possibly driving December corn to 442–446 target.
Wave structure points to a fifth wave of larger wave three in progress.

Wheat:
Chicago wheat reversed violently off 60-day cycle low near 50% retracement of June high to October low.
Possible formation of head-and-shoulders pattern amid heavy bearish sentiment.
Low fertilizer sales and slow planting—especially in Montana—hint at reduced acreage for 2025.
Supportive potential for early-year recovery into January acreage report.

Crude Oil:
Rebounding toward $62–63 resistance after recent lows.
China reportedly seeking non-Russian supply, helping stabilize global bids.
A close above $63 could shift near-term tone bullish, but broader trend remains negative into year-end.

Macro Outlook:
Markets consolidating ahead of Friday’s USDA crop report.
Technical rebounds in cattle and corn suggest short-term recovery potential, but trade policy and Brazilian tariff decisions remain critical to medium-term direction.