Grains stall awaiting the meeting this evening in South Korea.
Grain futures are under pressure this morning as profit-taking kicks in after a string of strong sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat had recently attracted fresh buying interest, but that momentum has now drawn some weak longs into the market, many of whom are now being flushed out.
This type of consolidation is not unexpected following a technical recovery, especially as trade shifts from hope-driven rallies to waiting on new fundamentals to justify further upside. Pres. Trump does not meet with Pres. Xi until Thursday morning and South Korea, our Wednesday evening at the CME Chicago time.
The standout news this morning came from China. State-owned grain giant COFCO reportedly purchased three U.S. soybean vessels overnight, a long-anticipated move given firming basis levels and freight values in recent days. While the announcement is undoubtedly supportive, the trade largely anticipated this business following improved U.S.-China relations and freight market signals.
Of note, the timing aligns with tomorrow’s scheduled meeting, okay, I will get those in suggesting this may be a goodwill gesture ahead of high-stakes diplomatic talks. Traders will now shift their focus toward quantifying how much additional Chinese buying may follow, and whether this marks the start of more sustained activity.
Despite this morning’s positive headline, the broader futures complex is drifting. Bull markets require constant feeding, and the market is now starved for further fresh inputs to continue the upward trajectory that had started t, just heads up o build over the last few sessions.
Harvest updates remain relevant, but most of the production narrative is now well understood. Traders will be looking for additional sales announcements, any updates from trade discussions, and further signals from global weather patterns or export demand shifts.
The live cattle market yesterday found stability while feeder cattle continued to plunge on liquidation. Today, we should see more of a mixed trade. The cash index yesterday dropped $7.30 and was at $360. 25, while the one-day average was down near $335. Index fund liquidation should be substantial, bringing stability the marketplace from a sector that just wants out at all costs.
Yesterday, some thinly traded cattle in the north at $228-230 and at $360 dressed. This aligns with the October contract, which expires later this week. This morning could still have a margin call selling. Still, after that, stability should arise today in the futures trade as the market awaits actual confirmation of whether Brazilian tariffs on beef will be reduced from 50% to 10%, and what the USDA Secretary Rollins will say. Rollins will decide whether the USDA will allow a partial opening of the Mexican border or not. Even if the board was partially open, heavy protocols will start with a very slow opening similar to one they tried in May. This should bring about a bounce in an extremely oversold cattle futures market.