The current grain rally anticipates a Chinese/US trade resolution in two weeks.

A quiet mixed price in grains as we come into Friday morning, ahead of the weekend. November options expire today with first notice day next Friday on November soybeans.

This morning, global trade is back in the spotlight after President Trump canceled a meeting with Canadian officials. The decision came in response to a Canadian television ad criticizing U.S. tariffs, further straining trade relations between the two countries.

The market's attention has now shifted to China, where upcoming discussions are expected to focus on two major issues: fentanyl exports and soybean trade. President Trump has signaled that soybeans will be a central topic. While Japan has shown willingness to increase U.S. soybean imports, any gains there will likely be limited since the U.S. already supplies about 70% of Japan’s soybean needs. India, meanwhile, reiterated that it is only interested in importing non-GMO corn from the United States, which further narrows potential upside in that export market.

Reports of the worst flooding in China in 60 years, as the corn crop is trying to get harvested.

The betting site Polymarket Prediction has the odds of a US-China trade deal by November 10 at 79%. A weekend surprise would be if the US and China did reach a deal with our US Treasury Secretary and our US Trade Representative meeting with their Chinese counterparts.

Outside of trade developments, fresh news remains limited. The USDA has announced it will reopen some of its services, including local FSA offices, allowing farmers access to the grain loan system. This could help support commercial flow as harvest continues.

Cash markets are continuing to firm into the weekend. Farmer selling remains extremely limited, which is helping interior basis values hold strength. November options expire today, and next Friday marks first notice day, which could begin to shape futures positioning going into the new month.

Cattle futures ended yesterday’s session with small gains, while feeder cattle again fell lower, creating further technical damage as index funds continued to exit their long positions. A Mexican trade representative announced they want to meet next week in Washington to discuss new protocols to open the Mexican border to their feeder cattle. Yesterday's cash feeder index was off $1.38 at $370.62, off $6.00 on the week.

There were light cash sales on Thursday, but mostly at steady prices. Sales in the north were $239-240, while live trade in the South was quoted steady, with last week's prices at $240. Box beef had choice picking up $2.49, while select was up $1.13. Sale barn activity remains strong for feeder cattle, but the bloom is coming off. Technical damage is building on the charts, with January feeder cattle targeting 349-351. Rallies can happen, but they are now considered retracement rallies. The air is coming out of the balloon.