Outside markets reversed course overnight, with the ag sector joining the broader retreat. Soybeans and wheat are under the most pressure, as both markets are digesting fresh news.

In soybeans, the focus remains on tightening U.S. supply and demand fundamentals. New crop ending stocks are already projected to be minimal, and fresh signs point to a crop smaller than current estimates suggest. The key question now is just how much smaller this year’s harvest will be—and how much demand must be rationed. With Chinese purchases still noticeably absent, export demand is already being trimmed, leaving little room for further adjustments.

Wheat markets are contending with rising global production estimates, especially from the Black Sea region and Australia. That bearish influence is being partially offset by ongoing concerns about U.S. soil moisture levels heading into winter wheat planting, which is offering some underlying support.
Despite the market movement, the overall news cycle remains relatively quiet as the U.S. government shutdown continues. However, weekly export inspections are still expected to be released today, and tomorrow’s NOPA crush report will draw close attention from the soy complex.

In South America, CONAB will issue its initial 2025–26 production estimates today, which could help shape sentiment moving forward. Crude oil turned lower overnight and is pressing last Friday’s low under 58.00. This is dragging on lower ethanol and soybean oil values, putting corn and soybeans lower.

Yesterday's higher trade session saw live and feeder cattle, all closing at new contract highs. The only exception was the October live cattle contract, which did not push through 242.47, its contract high, while it is in delivery. Yesterday’s cash feeder index picked up $1.08 to $369.00. After last week’s strong price showing, the outlook is for better money by another $3-5.00. Last week’s average life price was up $3, and was pretty widespread at $234.

Some cash feeder auctions are $10-20 higher this week, with the younger feeder calves $20-30 higher. Tight inventory is still the top priority of the marketplace right now, and not much concern about slowing demand. Meanwhile, China’s hog values continued to fall by another 1.7% yesterday, keeping price pressure on our white meat production, which is helping meat processors absorb cattle price losses.

The momentum continues to be higher on the breakout from last week. Winter targets have live cattle pursuing 2.55-2.58, while feeder cattle target 384-388. Intraday swings of $ $6-7 and feeder cattle are becoming more prevalent at these values.