This morning we have a firm wheat market while soybeans and corn softened a bit. In the outside markets several of them are seeing profit-taking from their massive early week strength in the metals. Today would’ve been the October 9 WASDE Crop Production report but as it is we will not have one out today, and it’s doubtful this will ever arrive this month. Meanwhile private estimates do reflect a smaller crop to of been reported today than last month.

Harvest is advancing, and while more yield data is coming in, it is not giving much clarity on overall production. Yields remain all over the board on corn, with some farmers reporting yields 50-70 bpa below last year where disease pressure is noted, but others are seeing yields above a year ago. We are also hearing more reports of low test weights in more areas. Soybean yield reports are not as variable, but we are seeing concern over the low soybean moisture.

China is back from its holiday today, but given the lack of government reports, we do not know if they are anyone else is buying US grain right now, but market indicators are showing demand remains strong. The US remains the main source of corn for the global market. The renewed weakness in soybeans overnight is tied to concerns of China tightening rare earth market access, complicating trade negotiations.

Basis values are firming across the interior market as farmers are focused on harvest, not marketing. We are also starting to see river and export basis firm. Open interest was up another 13,500 corn and 19,000 soybean contracts yesterday, indicating fresh buyers have entered the market.

Wheat is firming on comments from a Russian Ag Minister is forecasting that wheat seeding would fall 2 percent from the 2025 levels, with an uptick in oilseeds likely next spring.

Yesterday, cattle futures again pushed higher with feeder cattle leading the way to new contract highs. The divergence continues with live cattle not performing as robustly as a feeder cattle trade. The fear of any Mexican border opening occurring because of the new vaccine has worn off, with the finding of another infected animal 170 miles south of the US/Mexican border on Tuesday. Yesterday's cash feeder index picked up $1.27 and is at $365.51, with October and November futures now premium.

Box beef values were mixed on Wednesday. Choice picked up $0.19, while Select fell $3.64, giving up the gains on the week. Offers in the South are hoping to pick up a few dollars this week with shoulders placed at $235-237. Slaughter through midweek is at 335,000 head, off 13,000 from last week and 25,000 head fewer than a year ago. Resistance on December cattle is $240, while November feeder cattle have continuation resistance near 370. Feeder cattle have risen nearly $20 in four trading days. It may be difficult for feeder cattle to breach resistance and continue accelerating at its present pace, given the gains seen in the short period. One would expect resistance would possibly hold for today and see a pause.