The grain trade is firmer again this morning after an initially softer night session, as sellers cannot seem to get leverage much anymore. It’s unusual to see U.S. basis values strengthening right in the middle of harvest, when grain stocks are typically flush. But a combination of disengaged farmers and disappointing yields is keeping movement tight. Most of what’s moving today are pre-sold bushels that were contracted earlier in the season. If the White House follows through with another round of farmer subsidies, any incentive to sell will likely shrink even further.

Corn basis strengthened by as much as 5 cents yesterday, while soybean basis firmed by as much as 15 cents in the Eastern Corn Belt. Even in the west, where basis tends to be weaker, soybean bids have improved by as much as 40 cents from recent lows. Year-to-date corn exports are at 264 Mil Bu, which is up 100 Mil Bu over last year. With no crop report tomorrow, some field scouts are contemplating that yields could be down to 181 BPA.

No progress has been reported on ending the government shutdown, which will delay tomorrow’s scheduled WASDE report. Without those figures, market focus remains split between daily U.S. harvest reports and the global weather outlook.

Outside markets continue to show strong moves, with gold futures leading the way. Up more than $50 this morning, they are making a run toward $4,100 per ounce. Expect today’s trade to stay highly sensitive to any government negotiation updates and the pace and results of harvest activity across the Midwest.

The aid package for farmers was not announced yesterday, but is anticipated to arrive soon, if not today. Rumor has it that it will be between $10 and $15 billion and another financial assistance package will be available in 2026. President Trump is planning to take on China’s soybean avoidance.

Feeder cattle again led another robust rally yesterday, marking three strong days in a row that started with last Friday’s challenge of the 350 range. This catapult to the upside saw November feeders post a new all-time high close on Tuesday (contract highs are still $2.00 away and $5.00 away on the continuation chart). The cash feeder index picked up another $0.90 to $363.47.

Last week, the average live price was off $2, and dressed sales slipped $5. The Packers picked up 42,667 head for 1-14 day delivery and 10,779 head for 15-30 day delivery. Box beef added to its gains on the week, with choice higher by $1.07 and select picking up $2.59. Seasonally, we start to see box beef bottom out in the early part of October. December live cattle last week held trendline support and are now nearing trendline resistance, which today is at 2.95 from the August 27 high. November feeders yesterday closed above their downtrend line, opening up a challenge of 367 and 370.