Corn and beans face an open harvest weekend.
A mixed grain trade at the end of the night session, with wheat holding 2-cent gains on Saudi Arabia’s wheat tender. There is now starting to become a shift in market attitude as harvest advances, and more yield data comes in. The only thing consistent with this year’s corn and soybean crops is inconsistency in both yields and crop quality.
Reports of better than expected yields are just as many as those saying yields will be lower than last year, some by a significant amount. Soybean yields are also highly variable, but the concern there is how dry soybeans are. Reports of moisture falling to 8% or below are not uncommon this year. The weather in Brazil remains dry and is causing delays to the start of soybean planting in some regions. This may also delay Brazil’s soybean harvest.
The government remains closed, which has halted the release of reports. Much of today’s session will be spent shoring up positions and monitoring developments with the US government. It will also be spent seeking clarification on the President’s proposed subsidy package for US farmers, which will be announced next Tuesday and is worth a reported $10 billion.
With the government closed, we have no export sales data that would’ve been released on Thursday and no Jobs Report this morning that will be used for the Federal Reserve’s October meeting. Also, the odds of the USDA WASDE crop production report will likely not occur next Thursday. This would have been a key copy report to determine the grain trade's current trend. Today is an open weekend harvest Friday. Odds favor sales will be aggressive against the corn and soybean contracts today, especially more so at the end of the session.
Feeder cattle futures posted sharp losses yesterday after gapping lower as renewed concerns that Mexican feeder cattle could return into the US. The new drug that has been approved to combat the New World screwworm may be used along with the upcoming winter to allow a resumption of Mexican feeders into the US. There is no evidence from the USDA that this may occur, but it seems to be a running rumor with at least two of its four legs.
There was some light cash trade yesterday in the north with Nebraska at $230, which was off $ $3 for the week, and sales in Iowa were at $228-230, which was $2-4 lower. The South remains untraded with bids of 231-232 being past. Box beef continues to crumble. Yesterday's choice was off $5.25; select was lower by $3.49.
November feeder cattle have to hold 3.49 (last week’s low), and December cattle have to hold 231.75, or else a much sharper lower run can occur. November feeders would target 340 initially and then 330 on a major breakdown.