A softer trade greets the start of the week with active harvest taking place, along with a USDA stocks report due Tuesday morning at 11:00 a.m. Expectations on the estimates are looking for a neutral quarterly stocks report but there’s always a prospect the USDA could increase last year’s yields a bit, bumping old crop stocks.

The Russian export forecast for wheat is off to a very poor start. Year-to-date exports are at 11 MMTs, the slowest pace in four years and 50% less than last year’s exports, which were at 33 MMTs. Prices in Russia are rising but have yet to affect US valuations.

Row crop harvest for corn and beans will be heavier in the next few weeks, especially since the recent heat and dryness have accelerated the dry down and maturity of the crops. This will help data for the October WASDE October 9 crop report if there’s no government shutdown if Congress does not pass another continuing resolution.

It’s the end of the month, and over the last few months, funds tend to sell off into the closing day. What will be interesting is what the USDA says at 11 a.m. Tuesday, determining if December corn can close higher or lower for the month. On the last trading day of August, corn closed at 420.2. Trading this morning is currently at 419.6.

It was a mixed close last week for cattle and feeder futures, with a steady trade offered this morning. Friday’s August cold storage report showed US red meat supplies continue to fall. Beef in cold storage at the end of August totaled 393.8 million pounds, 1% less than the end of July but up 2% from August 2024. Frozen pork supplies totaled 393.89 million pounds, down 3% on the month and down 13% from a year ago. Pork bellies fell the hardest in August, with stocks -25% from July and 8% less than last year. Total red meat supplies were down 2% month to month and down 7% year to year.

Last week’s negotiated fed cattle prices were down, with sales in the South $3 lower at $237, while the north was off $1-4 at $232-235. Box beef prices continued to tumble last week, with the choice off $10.62, while the choice cutout value in September has declined $44, and select is off $388. Last week’s late selloff from Tuesday into Thursday. Extra weight when Pres. Trump said he would be visiting with Pres. Lulu of Brazil is talking about tariffs this week.

Friday’s reversal higher partially came from the lack of confirmation that a phone call is being put on the calendar. Cattle futures may try to produce a follow-through rally today Friday’s bounce, but liquidation from index funds, which still hold the largest position in the last decade are at risk of selling the rallies.