After a strong performance by wheat and corn on Tuesday, the strength maintained overnight carries through the morning session. Meanwhile, soybeans rechallenged early week lows and found demand in soybean oil and the bean product, creating a sharp recovery rally in the early morning hours. Comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent may have created the buying interest in beans, with him stating in a speech this morning that they are optimistic for fruitful talks in late October.

The US harvest is gaining momentum with more reports of less than expected yields, mainly on corn. Corn yields are highly variable, though, making it difficult to predict overall crop size accurately. Trade believes that the US corn crop will be smaller than current USDA estimates, but is hesitant to adjust total production until more confirmation is seen. This is keeping corn future movement more limited than on the other commodities.

Wheat is firming this morning as demand for US offers remains high, despite larger global production outlooks. The outside markets are firmer this morning, taking some of the negative pressure off the commodity market.

Yesterday, the cattle trade went two different directions, with live cattle sharply lower while feeder cattle still held sharply higher gains. The finding of an infected animal with the New World screwworm 70 miles south of the US/Mexican border affirms that the border will likely stay closed well into 2026.
Feeder cattle continued to price this factor in by removing the discounts in the deferred contracts, while live cattle are dealing with reality of soft box beef values, retreating consumer demand and the reality that there never was any feeder cattle supplies that would’ve ever increased slaughter capacity into the end of the year. So live cattle prices struggled. Yesterday, the choice box beef was off $0.59 at 380.80, while select dropped $2.19 to $359.90.

Two price-moving developments started to reveal themselves yesterday, the first when Pres. Trump yesterday gave a speech at the UN, and he commented on running into Brazilian president Lulu, and said he was looking forward to a phone conversation with him next week that they decided to have. Hinting that maybe the 50% tariffs could be on their way out. Secondly, there are rumors that the USDA is discussing creating some form of cattle herd expansion project. Skepticism is high, as government programs usually backfire, but there is talk of some programs to help heifer retention. Details are sketchy and all over the place, so whether it catches further support will be the devil in the details.

December cattle have reaffirmed resistance above 240, while November feeder cattle have resistance at 364-365. Yesterday's buying in deferred feeder cattle contracts may have satisfied the current buy-rush, with January feeders approaching 360 again, close to the nearby cash market. Watch for a stall out in the feeder cattle trade on any further strength today.