After a mostly firm night session, the trade turned mixed. The main event in today’s grain trade will be the release of the September WASDE report at 11:00 a.m. CT. Market expectations are mostly centered on modest adjustments to the August figures. For corn, analysts are generally looking for a yield cut of around 2.5 bushels per acre, which would reduce total production by about 250 million bushels. Any corresponding demand reduction will likely come from the residual category, as other demand estimates, particularly exports, are currently too low to justify further trimming. Estimates suggest old crop corn ending stocks will come in at 1.31 billion bushels, with new crop stocks projected at 2.01 billion.

Soybean expectations are more muted. Yield is forecast to decline just 0.3 bushels to 53.3 bpa, bringing total production down 20 million bushels to 4.27 billion. Any changes to soybean ending stocks are expected to be minor, less than 5 million bushels for both old and new crop. However, soybeans are already in a rationing environment, and even a small reduction in supply could intensify that. While the lack of Chinese buying remains a concern, domestic crush demand is helping offset some of the export weakness.

Wheat estimates suggest little to no change in domestic stock levels this month. On the global side, ending stocks are expected to remain stable, with improved production in South America balancing out the effects of smaller crops in the United States.

Once the WASDE report is released, market attention will likely shift back quickly to real-time harvest results. Early reports continue to show notable yield reductions, especially in corn fields that were not treated with fungicide. Even treated fields are falling short of early yield expectations by as much as 20 bushels per acre. These results are beginning to shape broader sentiment, and more such reports are anticipated as harvest expands.

Crop quality is also starting to come under scrutiny, particularly as weather forecasts point to a stretch of unseasonable heat across much of the country over the next week. That could pose a risk to late-developing fields, potentially affecting grain fill and test weights, further complicating the outlook for final yields.

China is pushing to see the 20% drop in the US fentanyl tariff to restart soybean purchases. The Trump administration is resisting and dropping such tariffs, with totals currently standing at 55%. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is pushing Mexico to impose tariffs on imported Chinese goods and threatening to place additional US tariffs on China for its purchase of Russian crude oil.

Crude all overnight reversed weekly losses and is up $1.20 this morning at 63.60 as the US proposes broad G-7 sanctions on Russian energy to end the war. This pushed further support into soybean oil, lifting it back to near 52.00.

Live cattle futures had noted their second day recovery from Tuesday’s sharp collapse, with feeder cattle notably still settling almost $6.00 under last Friday’s close, questioning why feeder cattle have not snapped back harder if Tuesday was just a technical break. Even live cattle are $4.00 under last Friday’s settlement. Today, a strong performance needs to occur in the livestock trade to avoid more technical signs that August 27 was not a major top.

The thin trade was reported yesterday in the cash business with Kansas quoted at $238, off $4 from last week, while the north had seen a range of $373-378, showing a break of $2-10 below last week’s average price. Texas has yet to trade and is passing $238-240 bids. Choice box beef tumbled $4.85 while select was also off $3.73 yesterday. Beef demand seasonally cools this time of year, and it seems it’s still no exception this time around, given how cattle have lacked seasonality over the past five months.

The volatility in the cattle market is due to low market participation. Index funds are transferring money out to other allocations, which is creating these large daily swings in live and feeder cattle. A close under 230 October cattle and 350 October feeders are key technical numbers that could create further sharp losses if violated. Long-term moving averages on the continuation charts for October cattle are 224-225, with October feeder cattle at 330-331. Both zones seem inconceivable with how hot the cash market is, but it would not be the first time in history that the board ignores the cash trade and goes its own way. Today’s trade needs a sharp recovery to close the gap from last Friday’s settlement.