Turnaround Tuesday has made its presence felt in the overnight trade, following strong gains into Monday’s close. Despite the firm start to the week, a lack of fresh news and the beginning of the US harvest season are both applying pressure to the futures market.

Yield results for corn and soybeans continue to be widely debated, with many expecting final numbers to fall short of current USDA projections. Early corn harvest reports are mixed, but overall, they point toward a US crop that may be only slightly larger than last year, if it is larger at all. Meanwhile, quality concerns are gaining more attention for both corn and soybeans.

Anecdotal reports from the core I-states suggest yields are coming in at or below last year’s levels. The weather over the past month has been the driest in Ohio in more than 40 years. This dryness, coupled with a recent cool spell that brought freezing temperatures to parts of the northern Corn Belt, is raising concern. Still, the immediate crop damage from the frost appears limited for now.

Attention is also beginning to shift south, as planting is underway in parts of South America. As Brazil and Argentina enter their growing season, US weather will take more of a backseat in global market focus. However, one emerging US weather concern that is starting to move the market is low water levels on major rivers, especially the Mississippi. Draft restrictions are already in place, and forecasts indicate that water levels could continue to decline through the rest of the month. This could pose logistical challenges for grain movement during harvest.

Outside markets are also in play today as traders position themselves ahead of key inflation data due later this week. On Monday, both gold and the NASDAQ pushed to fresh all-time highs, reflecting investor positioning ahead of those economic reports. While recent strength in equities has weighed on commodities, there are signs that managed money is beginning to step back into the commodity space. Some traders are seeing value at current levels after futures fell into technically oversold territory.

The next major data event for grain markets is Friday’s monthly WASDE report. With so much uncertainty surrounding yield potential and global supply chains, positioning ahead of this report is expected to be active. Many end users may look to secure coverage just in case Friday brings bullish surprises.

There will be no trade video this afternoon, as I will be one of the panelists at the Big Iron Farm Show in West Fargo today. I’m part of the Red River Farm News network forum at 1:30 p.m. If you’re there, look me up when we get done.

Cattle futures closed higher yesterday but gave up most of their gains into the closing bell. The feeder cash index showed a gain of $3 to start the week at $367. Box beef performance Monday was mixed, with choice off $1.07 at $409.69, while the select held a minor $0.15 gain at $385.34.

Live and feeder cattle futures are in precarious territory as they continue to correct from the highs made on August 27. They are discounted to the cash market, which makes breaks to new lows consistently finding a dump/pump mentality. Still, we see rallies continuing to find willing sellers at minor retracement levels of the recent break. Significant support for October live cattle is at 232, and if feeder cattle give way at 355, the next major target is 350-351. Given the size in daily ranges of the feeder cattle, anything becomes possible currently, with the seasonal tendency for the negotiated cash trade and feeder cattle to typically soften in September.