This morning’s grain trade has a firm corn market, with yesterday marking the third-largest weekly export sales number on record. The trade is mixed on wheat, while soybeans soften. Bean oil has continued to weaken since last week’s euphoric high, as the EPA movement for reallocating SREs to large US energy companies has not occurred yet. Corn continues to get support from its impressive export

Overnight, there were no deliveries against corn and Chicago wheat, but we did see 328 lots of Kansas City corn and 3 soybean deliveries.

Reports from across the Midwest indicate corn is maturing rather quickly this year. This includes silage chopping in Central Michigan, which is well ahead of normal. If we see early maturity across the entire US, more questions will arise about the quality of this year’s corn crop. Field scouts also report more cases of white mold in soybeans. These may not be widespread, but they add doubt to current yield estimates. Trade is also awaiting updates on the trade talks between the US and China that have been taking place.

There is developing talk that there will be little Brazilian corn acreage expansion this year, at just 2%, slowing from its almost annual 4% increase.

The Central US weather forecast looks a little wetter this morning beyond September 2. Some meaningful shower chances should start next week as the jet stream pushes northward, and Ridge riding systems can possibly return. The operational models are not forecasting exact locations yet or the amounts of the coming rain. But it is anticipated that near-normal rainfall is planned for the northern Plains, the NW Midwest, Michigan, and Ohio. Otherwise, below-normal rainfall is in the forecast for Illinois and Indiana.

Since peaking Wednesday morning at some key technical numbers that were noted (242 for October cattle, 370 for October feeder cattle), another day of profit-taking and correcting occurred into the close yesterday. A steady softer start is anticipated. August feeder cattle yesterday marked modest gains, with prices expiring at $366.92 compared to $243 last year. Meanwhile, the cash feeder index yesterday gained $4.55, trading at $365, and showed a $15 gain since last week.

Yesterday some negotiated cattle trade revealed $2 higher for the week at $242. In the north, trade was steady at $245, but the dressed trade had a wide range of $385-395.

October cattle are trading a dollar lower than last Friday’s close of 237.87, while last Friday’s close for October feeder cattle was 362.50 with yesterday’s close at 361.52. Making new highs on a weekly basis and closing lower than the prior Friday is a very negative technical outcome if that occurs today. This implies that high watermark tops were put in place that will be worked against during recovery rallies as resistance. Today’s cattle trade needs to close higher to maintain bullish momentum.