Futures opened the week on the defensive, with grains and oilseeds posting moderate declines. Much of the pressure comes from correcting last week’s rally, with the soy complex taking the brunt of the losses. Support for soybeans comes from Friday’s stronger-than-expected NOPA crush report—July crush volumes reached a six-month high and set a new record for the month.

As the week begins, fresh news is limited, leaving attention on US crop potential. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour kicks off today, offering fresh insights into yield potential, though traders are already debating results ahead of tonight’s first release. It’s important to understand when the tweets come out on yields on the Pro Farmer tour, they are to be compared to last year’s tour to give an idea of increased yield potential, not compared to what the USDA said. Market bears have a large position to defend and require steady negative headlines to keep futures under pressure. Corn export demand remains high as US corn remains the most affordable in the world market.

Demand is also becoming more of a focus, particularly for grains, where interest remains firm. However, the lack of Chinese buying is raising concerns, with no US sales to China currently on the books. While China is expected to return for soybeans, the scale of purchases remains uncertain. Weather and crop condition reports will be central to today’s price action, alongside export inspection data this morning and crop progress figures after the close.

The heat across the Midwest is starting to abate with near to above normal rainfall to occur next week. Until his above normal rains arrive around August 27 the be widely scattered showers from Ridge-riding storms will occur across the W and C Midwest. The heat should come to an end in the north on Wednesday and start cooling in the South after that. Below normal temperatures are expected to prevail early next week before returning to seasonal levels. There are no new threats of extreme heat.

After a tumultuous week, live and feeder cattle closed higher week over week with a firm start anticipated this morning. Early week challenge of contract highs was met with a volatile decline into Thursday, as thoughts that the Mexican border would have a scheduled to reopen was rumored. On Friday the USDA announced that they were tripling the investment in sterile fly’s to combat the New World Screwworm, not relying on Panama and Mexico to develop the flies fast enough. There is no mention as to a timeline for the border reopening.

Last week’s cash feeder index jumped $8.54 at $346. This is supporting the feeder cattle board, which likely wants to take aim again at recent highs. Negotiated fed cattle trade was higher last week, but the volume was light. Live sales in the north showed a gain of $ $4 and traded at $242-246. Meanwhile, Kansas had light trade, 2 dollars on either side of unchanged at $233-237 with no sales having been quoted in Texas. There was a lower cattle slaughter week again last week at 530,000 head, off 75,000 head from last year. They have been just two weeks in 2025 when slaughter was above 2024. Sharp gains in box beef occurred last week, with choice picking up $22 to close above $400, while select gained $16 at $371. We now see the estimated slaughter margins rising to a five-week high of $116. Daily intraday swing prices in feeder cattle have now seen $6-7 become the norm.