The grain trade relaxes from yesterday's price rise.
Profit-taking emerged in the overnight trade, which came as little surprise after yesterday’s strong rally. The soy complex in particular had logged two consecutive sessions of gains. Fundamentally, little has changed in the market since Tuesday’s WASDE release. U.S. weather remains less than ideal, with additional reports of heat taking a toll on corn development, and scattered accounts of heat stress now being noted in soybeans. Although these issues are not widespread, they raise doubts about whether current yield projections, especially for corn, are too optimistic.
For market bears, defending their positions has become more difficult. They now need a steady stream of negative headlines to maintain pressure. Soybeans have also been caught up in global trade disputes. China’s 76% tariff on Canadian canola takes effect today, initially sparking hopes that U.S. soybeans might benefit from redirected demand. However, sources suggest China may lean on Australian canola to replace lost Canadian supply, putting fresh pressure on the soy complex this morning.
According to Bloomberg News, Vietnam is now reporting a worsening outbreak of African Swine Fever, impacting about 100,000+ pigs. Vietnam was the first SE Asian nation to allow the commercial vaccination of pigs in 23, but the cost of the vaccine and slow efficacy rate curtailed its use. If this expands across Vietnam, the liquidation of the pork could be required to control the virus. Vietnam is a large buyer of US corn and soymeal imports for its domestic pork supply.
Weekly export sales out this morning showed corn again above 2 MMT, while soybeans were above 1 MMT. There was likely a cancellation of the old crop of 377,000 beans rolled to the new crop, while wheat export sales were right near last week’s sales and above 700,000 MTs. Still, with a lack of fresh supportive headlines and continued disinterest from managed money, markets have slipped into a news vacuum, weighing on contracts across the board.
Central weather in the US remains mostly benign. Showers and storms will sweep the upper Midwest this weekend, and showers will return to the Central and Eastern Midwest next week. Temperatures will begin to cool after August 19, and rainfall chances for the Delta and Eastern Midwest will also improve thereafter.
Over the past two weeks, feeder cattle have moved in much larger daily trading ranges, with numerous 6-7 dollar ranges now not uncommon. Cattle futures pushed higher yesterday, coming within striking distance of last week’s Thursday high, both on live cattle and feeder cattle. Then, intraday, prices plummeted before recovering with a positive close on the session. Some dressed sales occurred yesterday in the north, $4 higher for the week at $3 85. Meanwhile, live sales in the South were $2 higher at $2 37. Both the sales prices were record prices for their regions.
Yesterday, Reuters reported that Brazil has passed a package to help industries fight Trump’s 50% tariffs. Brazil is eliminating taxes on key products that have been most impacted, including beef. They will not have to pay taxes on exports, which still do not cover the total amount of tariffs, but help alleviate some of the burden of moving products.
At midweek, cattle slaughter was reported at 333,000 head, a gain of 1000 head over last week and 23,000 head fewer than a year ago. Box beef prices were up yesterday, with select picking up $2.32 while choice was near steady, down nine cents. Critical resistance for October live cattle is 232.75-233.00. The September feeders have major resistance at 350.00-350.50. Breaching those levels in closing above them creates a new extension to the upside in price.