This morning’s grain trade has firmer soybeans, following soybean oil rebounding as crude oil gains nearly $1.00. Pres. Trump has escalated his threats to India that he will raise their tariffs if they continue to buy Russian crude oil. The deadline is fast approaching for Russia to produce a cease-fire with Ukraine. Corn and wheat remain softer in their recent soft trends while French milling wheat tries to stabilize near its July lows.

The grain trade remains caught in geopolitical uncertainty regarding what the US and China will work out of the next 90 days. However, it’s become certain that China will hold back on US grain purchases until late this year. China still needs to import well over 10 MMTs of beans in the US to fulfill its complete needs, as Brazil, even with its record crop, cannot satisfy that demand.

Yield guesses will continue to come in on the 2025 corn and soybean crop, but the early week revelations from StoneX will be on the top side of guesses. What continues to be left off the radar is that demand remains uncharacteristically robust in late July-early August for the row crops, as China has pushed competing buyers out of Brazil and Argentina to the US for needed supplies. Brazil and Argentine grain prices are not in a seasonal downtrend as you would expect during harvest, but are firmer currently than they were in July.

As yield rises for the US crop, statistically, so does demand. Big crops find early seasonal lows. From mid-August forward, there is strong statistical evidence that corn and bean prices can bottom as buyers step into the market, buying into the massive crop expectations in case those thoughts drift to just a big crop.

A warmer forecast is expected to rise into the Northern Plains and Western Midwest by August 20, but there are expectations that near-normal rainfall after recent rains will keep any concerns isolated and to a minimum. There is no expectation that any Dome Of Doom will be setting up in August, as a high-pressure Ridge in the US Gulf of Alaska will help maintain a northwest upper airflow to the jet stream, which still allows showers to be maintained in the Midwest.

Yesterday, live and feeder cattle futures used the recent sharp pullback as a buying opportunity in a bull market, slingshotting prices back to recent highs. The October live cattle contract recovered into the Box (area between the 62% and 78% retracement value) while September feeder cattle did an almost full retracement before retreating back under 340 before the close. August live and feeder cattle futures made new contract highs yesterday as they are in the delivery process. (August feeders are cash settled at the end of the month).

Feedlots are expecting a higher cash trade this week, especially with kill ow prices bolting higher in the need for hamburger as the Brazilian beef tariffs have all but ended imports of ground beef from that country. Box prices did respond higher yesterday, with choice box beef gaining $4.15 while select was also higher by $4.35. It is seasonal for the box beef market to bottom in August and rally into the start of the school season for the school lunch programs. If the cash cattle trade does produce another week of higher pricing, deferred live cattle will attack the 230 pricing range, further fueling the current board rally. This will likely ignite another leg higher on feeder cattle if they breach 341 on a closing basis for the active September contract.