Futures were narrowly mixed overnight, with month-end positioning being a primary focal point. The August contracts went into delivery overnight, and numbers were mostly as expected. Soybean deliveries were a little lighter than anticipated, which is positive. The fresh news is very thin this morning, although the US and South Korea have reached a trade deal that has set tariffs at 15%. Details are very limited, as they have been with most trade deals so far. Not many agreements have provided added demand for the ag sector, which is disheartening for the market. Trade wants to see deals with Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, and, of course, China.

Tomorrow is the negotiation deadline, and trade wants to see final results before adjusting market positions. President Trump stated this morning that a deal with Canada will be difficult given their stance on Middle East politics. The current US weather and yield estimates are the leading source of pressure for the market. More and more reports of less-than-ideal corn stands are coming in, though, and once this data is used in yield estimates, we may see the bullish spark needed for a rebound.

The Midwest forecast now has cooling temperatures, but the current forecast offers less rain into mid-August. The lower temperatures will still favor crop production. After the July rainfall, which was larger than that of prior Julys, moisture levels should be adequate. The 10-15-day weather models do show another Midwest warm-up, but there are no indications that extreme heat will build at this time.

Yesterday was another record day for live and feeder cattle futures on the upside. Brazilian beef will not get an import waiver against US tariffs, and with Brazil being the biggest supplier of rounds and end cuts that are used in US hamburgers, ground beef prices are set to increase in August. Tax exemptions on Brazilian goods were for aircraft, aircraft parts, minerals, and other goods. But coffee and beef were still on the docket for an additional 40% tariff hike.

Just to keep things interesting, President Trump will be visiting with Mexican President Sheinbaum by phone this morning. They will discuss avoiding the 30% tariffs that are to be placed on Friday. It’s also expected that the Mexican border closing to feeder cattle will also be a topic.

Yesterday’s reported estimated slaughter margins are truly in the red for packers. Box beef values again fell yesterday, with choice off $2.20 while select lost $1.57. The sharp decline in beef prices that has been going on since late June continues. If Brazilian import waivers could surprisingly add beef, with Pres. Trump’s fickle TACO (Trump always chickens out) moments, sharp reversals could be experienced in live cattle at any time, given the frenzied state of the recent market length that has been added. Until something like this occurs, the trend remains intraday violently higher.