This morning’s grain trade has wheat finding footing while corn and soybeans remain soft. Soybean ratings had dipped yesterday, causing a firm start to the night session, but gave way to selling, as price seasonals remain weak now through the end of the month. There is not enough developing bullish news to attract widespread buying interest. The managed money crowd remains focused on the equity market, and that is where money flow is directed. Until this changes, upside market potential may be limited.

The weather remains a mixed bag this morning, with some regions of the Corn Belt seeing adequate rainfall while others are seeing drought stress build. Long-range models are showing more heat for the US, but until crop ratings start to show stress, buyers will remain hesitant. Trade is well aware that yield can be lost to late-season stress, but is also aware the US has grown record-sized crops with less than ideal conditions in recent years, and wants verification of losses before buying the market. The lack of progress in trade deals is also weighing on the market, especially as we approach the August 1st tariff deadline. The greatest concern is the lack of progress with the EU, China, and Japan.

US crop ratings remain the best of the past decade for mid-July, with corn holding steady at 74%. Soybean ratings declined 2% and came in at 68% good/excellent ratings, falling in North Dakota and Kansas by 5%. Spring wheat ratings also dipped 2% and came in at 52% good/excellent. Meanwhile, winter wheat harvest is over 73% complete.

Moderate heat is building across the Plains and Midwest today and looks to be in place through the end of July. High temperatures range in the 80s to mid-90s, with the southern plains enduring mid-90s-100s. These temperatures are 2-5° above average for the hottest period of the year. Mild temperatures are anticipated to return at the opening of August, so there will be 6-8 days of heat that could moderately impact yield potential for row crops.

Live and feeder cattle prices pushed higher yesterday, making new contract highs in both classes. The cash feeder index also gained $3.52 at the start of the week and is now at a record high of $325.80. Early week strength that the board has feedlots already looking to sell at higher prices this week. With box beef prices languishing, this will be difficult, putting the Packers again in a tough spot.

Estimated slaughter margins are at $84/head in some places, only $55. The choice cutout was down $1 48, while the select gave up $1.44. August live cattle will have resistance at the previous June contract high of 227 and then major resistance at $230. Feeder cattle target 330, then the measured move of 1.618 Fibonacci extension to 337.