Grains start Thursday with a soft tone led by wheat.

Futures see modest pressure early Thursday as traders take profits following Wednesday’s rally. The market remains choppy and directionless as it weighs conflicting signals. Overall, US weather continues to be supportive, and combined with expectations for a large crop, this is keeping a lid on prices. Although demand is solid, the focus remains heavily on supply prospects.

Much of the discussion is centered around the potential for a 185 bpa corn yield, with less consideration being given to outcomes in the 178 to 179 bpa range, which would match last year’s result and still rank among the largest on record. Interestingly, more farmers describe their crops as good, not exceptional. Iowa and Nebraska are currently viewed as the leading areas for production. While current conditions are favorable, long-term forecasts signal a potential warm-up across much of the Corn Belt, just as crops require more moisture. It’s not a warning just yet, but traders are mindful that late-season weather has taken a toll on strong crops in past years. In addition to crop updates, today’s session will also be influenced by weekly export sales data and any developments in global trade relations.

Corn prices drifted fractionally in the night session as Pres. Trump indicated that Coca-Cola would use cane sugar in the production of his colas rather than high fructose corn syrup. Total HFCS usage has been declining over the years, and it is currently estimated at 405 Mil Bu, which is used in this crop year. Coca-Cola is estimated to use anywhere from 90-95 million bushels for its products. The question is, can it domestically procure enough supply, as importing it from Brazil may be very expensive if tariffs are not resolved.

Treasury Secretary Bessant suggested that the US could push its trade deal deadline with China forward by three months to November 12. This would give Pres. Trump time to position a trip into Beijing to get trade negotiations on goods underway. Soybean values overnight maintained midweek strength despite the extension that could delay critical Chinese soybean purchases until later into the year.

Midwest forecasts are starting to see a spike in temperatures next week into the 90s and lower 100s, which will occur in the Plains and SW Midwest, while mid-90s will be seen throughout the central corn belt. Currently, the pattern is seen as progressive and does not appear to be locking in place as the pattern stays on the move with an easterly progression. One thing that is standing out is how the central corn belt has seen warm nights over the last 30 days, where some are discussing how it adversely impacted 2010 corn yields. It’s the year when the heat reduces the flow of sugars to the ear. Concerns seem to be linked to some local area problems, but not a widespread issue at this time.

Another sharply higher move in cattle futures yesterday, with live cattle making new contract highs and feeder cattle parking just below last week’s contract highs. The discount to cash on live cattle is being removed with the lack of cash market softening at this time year. Box beef values, though, have struggled over the past week. Meanwhile, yesterday's cash feeder Index gained $0.81 and is now at $321.91.

There was some light negotiated fed trade yesterday with Kansas reporting $230, which was steady with last week, while asking prices remain $232 in the South. In the north, Packers are bidding $235, which is off $5 with last week’s activity and is being passed. Cattle slaughter reports at midweek show 347,000 head being harvested, which is 2000 fewer than last week and 16,000 head less than a year ago. Box beef values are still down sharply, with the choice cutout dropping $4.87, trading at $372.85, while select is off $4.67 lower at $357.91. Brazilian tariffs set to go into place on August 1, to 50% on beef imports, which are 22% of the US total supply of imports, and are expected to affect cash values until consumer demand is seen falling off.