Improved crop ratings and generally favorable weather conditions across the US are putting early pressure on the market in Tuesday’s session. US corn continues to hold one of the best condition scores on record, while soybean ratings rose 4 points from last week. Spring wheat ratings also improved, supported by more favorable weather in key growing areas. While many analysts continue to use condition ratings as a tool for yield projections, it’s important to note that ratings reflect potential, not actual yield outcomes.

The French Ag Ministry predicted their 2025 wheat harvest would average 32.3-33.0 MMTs, which would be an increase of 27% from last year and roughly 2.4% above the 5-year average. The EU and Black Sea wheat supplies are forecasted to increase, buying 16-19 MMTs in the upcoming 2025-26 crop year.

Warmer temperatures are kicking off the week before moderating by the weekend, with scattered showers likely during the transition. Some weather models are pointing to a heat return by the month's end. By then, corn pollination will be mostly complete, but crops will still be in the critical stages of ear and pod development. Market participants remain highly focused on August weather, given its importance for final crop performance.

It was a sharply lower Monday as both live and feeder cattle contracts failed to react higher from last week’s late sharp rally. Even the feeder cash index was down $3.48 to start the week at $319.89. Box beef prices did not follow cattle higher, falling sharply on Friday and was again softer on Monday. Choice cutout late on Monday was down $1.57 while select gave up $1.91. Box beef prices are adhering to the softening nature of the cash trade moving into late July.

Last week’s 5-area lives dear cash price jumped $8 to $237, while the dressed price was $379, reflecting a $10 gain. The Packers bought 64,756 heads for 1-14-day delivery and 13,071 for 15-30 day delivery. Yesterday’s sharp losses, with a slight rebound into the close, may offer an inside day action today. But the market is showing a rejection at last week’s Thursday-Friday highs, which could prompt further correction.