First notice day deliveries are mostly soybean oil and meal.

This morning’s grain trade is mixed. Soybeans are posting losses of nearly $0.10, driven in part by deliveries of 852 contracts in soybean oil and 629 contracts in soybean meal. Kansas City wheat saw 430 contracts delivered, compared to just 88 contracts for Chicago wheat. Corn had 25 contracts delivered, while soybeans saw just 3.

Soybeans are showing continued weakness this morning after China’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) signaled a sharp contraction, likely impacted by the 145% U.S. tariffs. The ongoing trade war with China is weighing on consumer demand, reinforcing expectations that China will import fewer soybeans, especially as swine production margins remain negative.

Open interest data released yesterday showed a sharp decline in corn, down 43,297 contracts. Soybeans also lost 16,902 contracts. Conversely, Chicago wheat added 493 contracts. Soybean meal and soybean oil continued their declines, down 7,517 and 1,674 contracts, respectively. Now that May delivery data is available, we may see a return to old crop vs. new crop spreading, favoring the front months. This trend could be reinforced by next week’s WASDE report, which is expected to reduce corn and soybean carryouts due to strong ongoing export demand.

July soybeans are approaching their 200-day moving average at $10.39–$10.40. July soybean oil is also nearing a breakout level on the charts, testing long-term resistance around 48.50, representing a more than 38% correction from its recent highs. These levels are critical in determining whether a first-notice-day low can hold in a market with some of the strongest price action over the past month. Of note, index funds continue to build large short positions, even as U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat prices are now the lowest in the world, making them competitive in markets such as North Africa and Southeast Asia.

Rainfall of 2–7 inches is forecast across the Southern Plains over the next 10 days, with localized flooding possible. Moisture from the Gulf is being pulled into the Plains due to a high-pressure ridge over the Southeast, producing unusually high spring rainfall. Despite this, planting progress in the Midwest is expected to proceed as planned over the next two weeks. The central and southern Midwest, along with the Delta, are expected to see showers of 0.5–1.5 inches through Friday, followed by a drier spell next week.

In contrast, the Black Sea region continues to experience regional dryness and sporadic showers, along with additional freeze events in southern-central Russia. Drought conditions also persist across wheat-growing areas in the Chinese Plains, with above-normal temperatures and no precipitation forecast through May 15.

Live and feeder cattle futures hit new contract highs yesterday, with a steady tone expected this morning. April cattle contracts expire today, potentially supporting another week of higher slaughter prices. The cash feeder index rose $1.43 to a record $295.14. In Iowa, dressed cattle traded at $350 yesterday—a $10 gain over last week.

Boxed beef prices were also strong, with Choice cuts rising sharply by $5.49 to $348.26, while Select cuts slipped $1.30 to $323.82. Seasonally, supplies typically increase in May, often capping spring highs around the April contract expiration. While further price strength in cattle and boxed beef is possible into May, the current rally is becoming extended. Our technical projection shows resistance for June live cattle between $212 and $213.