First notice day for May grain contracts is Wednesday.

This morning’s grain trade is mixed with wheat, leading the recovery after the heavy selling experienced yesterday and the low of new contracts. Turnaround Tuesday is set there as strength is led by the May Minneapolis wheat contracts, which are set to rise by over $0.14 heading into the deliveries for all May contracts on Wednesday. Meanwhile, soybeans and corn retreated mildly as progress reports came in within one percentage point of expectations. Soybeans are going quickly, as farmers are also taking the time to plant beans ahead of some corn, finding that early planting of beans is helping yields. This could stall some of the conversation of 96 million acres of corn getting planted versus the USDA’s initial March 31 expectations of just over 95 million acres.

While soybean oil has been a leader in recent strength, it is on the retreat today, along with meal, maintaining softness. China is announcing its plans to reduce soymeal needs by 10%, but that won’t occur until 2030. Soymeal use has been declining, as in 2022, it was 14.5%, and now it is under 13%. They are trying to utilize microbial and insect proteins to lower soymeal inclusion in their feeding rates.

Conversation is growing on the spring rally potential for corn. The weather uncertainties can always create price jumps, offering hedging opportunities. Highs in May have occurred 5 times, June has found those highs 7 times, while we’ve had highs in July 5 times. Things to keep in mind as we roll into the next 90 days.

In the southern plains, they should see heavy rains continue in the amount of 3-8.00 in the next 10-day window. A high-pressure Ridge is pushing Gulf upper air moisture into the Plains, producing this unusual spring surge of rainfall through Texas and Oklahoma. Otherwise, we expect near-normal rainfall and warm temperatures in the Midwest, Northern Plains, and the Delta. Northern Europe looks to remain dry, along with the Black Sea, as the drought intensifies. Meanwhile, cold temperatures look to persist across Western Russia with frost and freeze risks developing. Abnormally high temperatures persisted across the dry areas of China in their wheat-producing areas.

Live and feeder cattle futures may be set for a softer start this morning. Yesterday afternoon, it was announced that the Secretary of Agriculture came to an agreement with its counterpart in Mexico to avoid closing the border again to feeder cattle on April 30 over the New World Screwworm. This does not mean more feeder cattle are coming, but we are maintaining our 24,000 head monthly inflow, which could grow in the coming months in the search for supply. In the past we imported 100,000 head from Mexico.

Box beef prices had seen another large jump, with choice gaining $6.22, putting it back over the 340 range at $342.70. Meanwhile, select gained $5.01 at $325.12. Movement was at 69 loads. April cattle expire this weekend, which is typically known for marking the seasonal high for cattle prices. Numbers naturally pick up for the kill side as we go into the summer months due to the birthing time of the bulk of the herd in the US.