First notice day for May grain contracts is Wednesday.

Last night’s grain trade opened soft and remained under pressure, driven by improving weather forecasts for spring planting. Volume was lower than usual, partly due to conflicting media reports about whether the U.S. and China are genuinely engaged in trade discussions. Given China's tendency toward propaganda and saving face, one must accept that the Trump administration is speaking with someone on the Chinese side. The U.S. Secretary of Agriculture has confirmed that daily communication with China occurs.

USDA Secretary Rollins appeared on CNN’s State of the Union program on Sunday, stating that several trade deals are close to completion. It’s hoped that South Korea, Japan, and India will be among the countries on the fast track. Securing these agreements would allow these nations to avoid the high tariffs set to go into effect in mid-July. The uncertainty surrounding these negotiations has led markets to adopt a wait-and-see approach, preferring to await formal announcements rather than speculating.

The trade expects planting progress to reach around 25% for corn and 15–20% for soybeans. Spring wheat seeding likely advanced significantly last week due to a lack of rain, though planting may slow early this week as rainfall spreads across key areas. Winter wheat crop ratings are expected to improve following last week’s rainfall across the HRW wheat belt. The Southern Plains will continue to receive rain this week, raising concerns about localized flooding.

This morning, there’s little difference between old and new crop pricing, as new-crop futures lead the way lower with advancing planting progress. Additionally, the upcoming first notice day for all May grain contracts on Wednesday, April 30, contributes to a risk-off sentiment across corn, soybeans, and wheat markets. After first notice day, attention will shift to the May WASDE report, which will need to reconcile strong ongoing exports despite USDA's recent reluctance to adjust estimates during the tariff standoff. Both corn and soybean export figures are expected to rise.

An active weather pattern is forecast across the U.S. over the next 10 days, with heavy rains between 3–9 inches anticipated for the Southern Plains, raising flooding concerns for cotton and HRW wheat crops. Meanwhile, dryness concerns persist in Germany and the Black Sea region, with frost risks for Ukraine and western Russia through the end of the week. Their winter wheat remains vulnerable as it continues to grow. In northern China, drought conditions are expected to worsen into mid-May as above-normal temperatures persist.

In livestock, cattle futures pushed to record high closes last week, and this morning’s outlook appears firm. On Saturday, Fox News reported that Secretary Rollins sent a letter to her Mexican counterpart, threatening to restrict U.S. livestock imports from Mexico if the New World Screwworm issue is not addressed urgently by Wednesday, April 30. In her letter, Rollins wrote:

“I must inform you that if these issues are not resolved by Wednesday, April 30, USDA will restrict the importation of animal commodities, which consist of live cattle, bison, and equine originating from or transported through Mexico, to protect the interests of the U.S. agriculture industry.”

Currently, the U.S. imports about 24,000 feeder cattle a month from Mexico, down from 100,000 head. Given the already tight market, any further restrictions would exacerbate supply pressures.

Last week, cattle slaughter dropped to 555,000 head due to a slow start. Year-to-date, cattle slaughter is now running 6% below last year’s pace and is the lowest since 2016. Boxed beef values jumped last week, with choice and select cuts gaining around $5 each, although they have yet to surpass prior highs near 340. April live cattle contracts expire this week; historically, this expiration has often coincided with seasonal price highs. If June cattle futures can break and hold above last week’s resistance levels, they could target $112, as projected last week using measured move analysis.