Markets even up ahead of the three-day Easter weekend.

This morning’s grain trade is firm. Wheat and soybeans are higher, while corn is steady-higher. A drier extended-range Midwest forecast offers active seeding in the 11-15-day window to help Midwest farmers get their crops seeded. The volume overnight was small as the market was winding down for the Easter holiday weekend. Markets are closed on Good Friday and will reopen Easter Sunday evening. The USDA will be open on Friday, so the Commitment of Trade reports will be released at the normal time.

This morning’s export sales showed continuation of good corn and bean sales, while new crop wheat sales are starting to increase. With China’s reciprocal tariffs of 145% on ag goods, it is anticipated that we will see minimal Chinese interest, but it will be offset by large sales to countries that are being pushed out of Brazil. China has substantially increased its soybean reserve stocks to 25-30 MMTs in recent years for this trade battle, and China needs to encourage Brazilian farmers to expand soybean seedings by 3-4% to 26. China’s massive April and May soybean imports ended up supporting US values with new nontraditional customers.

Yesterday, President Trump indicated that the US and Japanese trade talks to lower reciprocal tariffs started for trade fairness. According to the administration, the meeting was successful, but no deal has been signed as negotiations are still ongoing, and a considerable amount of detail still needs to be worked out. Today, President Trump’s team will begin their meetings with Italy.

The lack of future China Used Cooking Oil exports with the 125% tariff looks to the US to underpin soybean oil and soybean futures on breaks. When we come back from the Easter holiday, the wheat market will be watching the Black Sea weather to gauge whether short soil moisture can be replaced, or the world market will need to add a premium amid the record short wheat positions in Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis, along with Paris wheat futures. Wheat looks to gain on corn again over the next 30 days after giving back some premium.

An active rainfall pattern begins today across the Central US. A series of storm systems looked across the Central US over the next 10 days before a more normal rainfall pattern emerges in the 11-15 day window. The upcoming weather pattern does support severe weather across the Plains/Delta, and localized heavy rainfall is possible. The northern one-third of the Midwest will see near to slightly below normal rainfall in the next 10 days with increasing warmth. Meanwhile, on the other side of the globe, the Black Sea dryness looks to worsen with only slight hints of rain in the 11-15 day period. Much above normal temperatures will spur active winter grain growth.

Yesterday, live and feeder cattle futures again pushed to strong gains, with a firm outlook offered for this morning. June cattle have nearly recovered all of the tariff-related liquidation losses and stopped just short of the chart gap created at $204. Meanwhile, May feeders closed their gap and extended their gains at midweek. April feeder cattle expire today in the cash index, which was down four cents on Wednesday at $288.03.

Negotiated cash markets are still quiet, but active trade is expected later today. Asking prices in the South are at $208-210, which would be $4-6 higher for the week. Cattle slaughtered midweek totaled 357,000 head, which is up 8000 from last week, but 11,000 head less than a year ago. Weekend slaughter is expected to be light amid the Good Friday/Easter holiday. Box beef values were lowered midweek, with choice off $1.90 and select losing $0.85. The choice rib primal has led the rally in beef prices since early March, with the rally having slowed ahead of Easter. The current price is 34% higher than last year and at a record for mid-April.

The COF report is today at 2:00 p.m. On feed is 98.2%, Placements are 103.4%, and Marketing is100.6%.