Today’s grain trade is seeing a wave of heavy liquidation across the board.
Heading into President Trump’s meeting with China, the market was heavily positioned for bullish news. Instead, the only real takeaway was China agreeing to purchase “billions and billions” of dollars' worth of soybeans, which, in reality, falls short of what traders were hoping for. For perspective, even a 25 MMT soybean purchase would total roughly $12 billion.
As a result, traders who bought aggressively earlier this week are now rushing for the exits, and the market is punishing those long positions hard. Grain markets tend to overreact in both directions, and today looks like another example of that.
What’s interesting is that this kind of selloff often creates the exact setup China likes to buy into. Prices are quickly falling toward major support zones, levels that could attract renewed demand and potentially spark a recovery rally after today’s washout.
Key support levels to watch:
> July Corn: 350–353 (200-day MA)
> July Soybeans: 1165–1170
> July KC Wheat: 675–678 (50-day MA)
> July Chicago Wheat: 624–626 (continuation 30-day)
Once those areas are tested, the market could see a classic bear-market bounce develop. That recovery may be fueled by fresh export demand or surprise flash sales for corn and soybeans next week, similar to the large soybean meal sale to Italy announced this morning.