Is the Iran/US war ending, or will Iran pull a “Ukraine” in late negotiations and always want more than what was agreed upon?

You have heard the news about a possible end to the Iranian/US war to end their nuclear ambitions, at around 2:30 a.m. CT, energies collapsed, after initially weakening earlier Tuesday evening as Pres. Trump put a pause to any military action in lieu of a hastily put-together 12-point plan. This had energy collapsing, dragging the grains with it (with a lack of buy orders beneath the grain trade in a thin night market session), while stock indexes and metals exploded in value. By mid-morning, these vicious trends shifted a bit, as Pres. Trump did state that we do not have a plan; we have an opportunity to bring things to an end.

Even though it is optimistic that this conflict could be coming to an end, the prospect of Iran doing a “Ukraine”, always changing its mind towards the end of a piece deal, could still be the threat that could keep the Strait of Hormuz from being freely open through May, is still a possibility. China has entered the conversation and is encouraging both sides to quickly advance a peace accord here and reach a potential deal.

This also opens the door to the US/China Summit still being on track and occurring just seven days from now, which could spark renewed interest in corn and soybeans, supporting trade despite overnight losses in a thin, low-liquidity session. Rumors circulate that China may purchase another 12 MMTs of beans in the old-crop status, up from the stated 8 MMTs verbally agreed to back in February.

The Oklahoma Crop tour released yesterday a state crop production number of 47.8 Mil Bu, which is half of what was anticipated. Even the Texas crop is substantially smaller than most believe. As we stated after our crop tour, the Kansas wheat crop probably is no bigger than 250 Mil Bu, with total HRW wheat supplies near 550 Mil Bu or lower. In yesterday’s video, I stated it’s plausible that KC (HRW) wheat could trade almost a $1.00 above Chicago (SRW) wheat. This potential exists for HRW wheat exports, which need to be almost shut off. Freezing temperatures are anticipated across Colorado and Western Kansas tonight with projected lows in the mid-20s.

Cattle futures showed their return to the uptrend yesterday, with gapping higher and sustaining those gains into the close. Outside market activity today should encourage further strength again today. Yesterday’s cash feeder index was off $0.21 at $375.33, which will be the futures contracts' initial targets. August feeder cattle have made several attempts above 375.50, but so far have been unable to close above it. Box beef values jumped $0.78 on choice, picking up $1.64.

June cattle have solidified their support in the recent correction at 249-250, with last week’s high just under 256, a near-term target, with longer-term upward trends (likely the August contract) trying to target 262. August feeder cattle volatility has left support at 364 and near-term resistance at 375.50 on a closing basis, with 383-384 as an upward momentum target. Feeder cattle are seasonally friendly in price in the month of May.