Pres. Trump states that the Iranian/US war will be over soon. Oil prices collapse.

Grain futures were firmer in the night session, as demand for corn has been strong, ethanol usage is very profitable for the grind, and the soybean crush is profitable. Crude oil accelerated its losses this morning, dragging the grains in its wake as Pres. Trump is very optimistic that the US/Iranian war will end soon. He claims that Iran has made concessions and is in ongoing negotiations, while Israel and Hezbollah are also discussing a peace accord. This has helped push stock indexes higher again overnight, with the S&P reaching a new all-time high.

The acceleration of the stock market higher, along with the collapse in crude oil prices, is accentuated by news this morning at 7:30 a.m. CT stating that Iran's foreign minister declared that passage of all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is completely open for the remainder of the cease-fire.

Turkey will allow the import of 5 MMTs of corn at a 5% tariff rate in July. This has been supportive of corn late yesterday and overnight as the current tariff is 130%. The Turkish and poultry industry needs this corn after last year’s crop shortfall, microphone off talk to me with the US a leading contender for the supplies in the early go.

The collapse in oil prices will put a test on the grain trade this morning, with soybeans likely to break to the downside of its six-week trading range to challenge prices. With the possibility of some rain in the forecast for next weekend in Western Kansas, which is always the case, and then leaves without an actual rain event, could likely cause a correction of this week’s sharp gains.

Feeder cattle futures had a sharp two-day correction alongside live cattle retreating, but outside influences the day could offer up a recovery in the cattle trade. Technically, on the charts, it is important to have an update today, with prices closing above last Friday’s highs to avoid a weekly key technical reversal.

There was some light negotiated cattle trade yesterday with Iowa seeing sales $4 higher on the dressed trade at 392, while Nebraska was steady at $were 388. Southern live trade remained unchanged and stayed at last week's $248. Meanwhile, the cash feeder index jumped $4.07 on Thursday to a new record high of $379.09.

June live cattle in August feeder cattle are right at their first line of technical support with yesterday’s lows needing to hold. A sustained break under 247 on June cattle and  367 August feeders would be negative development. Still outside events today with crude oil sharply lower should help cattle try to offer up a recovery rally.

This afternoon we have the Cattle on Feed report at 2:00 CDST p.m. EST. Estimates are for On Feed at 99.5%, Placements 92.9%, and Marketings at 93.8%.