Crude oil turns higher overnight, as an Iranian oil field is struck

After a softer overnight trade, wheat and corn took a positive tone at the end of the night session, with soybeans returning to a mixed result and the bull spread continuing to unwind. The July/Nov bean spread is now $0.20 apart. Brazil’s soybean harvest is making steady progress, and safrinha corn planting continues to advance, though yield prospects vary by region. In Argentina, the concern remains on the southern side of the country, where persistent dryness is weighing on crops, even though the full extent of the damage remains uncertain.

China is also staying on the radar, with ongoing issues tied to new-crop wheat production and lingering quality concerns in old-crop supplies. This also includes US winter wheat crops that were hit by a freeze this week and will now endure very warm temperatures with no moisture by late this week.

Even so, none of this is catching the market off guard. Traders have already had time to absorb these stories, and there is little appetite to add fresh length on developments that are already well understood. That hesitation is even more noticeable with funds still carrying long exposure and nearby contracts flirting with overbought territory. On the other hand, the market is not being hit with enough new negative input to spark a broader round of liquidation. For now, grain futures are taking much of their day-to-day direction from outside influences, with energy continuing to set the tone.

The broader energy story still revolves around the conflict between the US and Iran and the disruption it is creating across global fuel markets. A limited number of tankers managed to transit the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, but volumes were far too small to meaningfully improve global oil availability. As it stands, those vessels are not expected to make regular return trips until the fighting ends.

The White House has indicated it wants to secure additional fertilizer supplies for US producers, but turning those into actual product on the ground before spring planting begins will be difficult from a logistics standpoint. After falling overnight, crude oil prices have rebounded, trading above $ 97.50 this morning.

Live and feeder cattle futures continued their rally yesterday, with feeder cattle also enjoying the relief in corn values over the past two sessions. The feeder index turned higher for the first time in 15 days, rising to $358.31. The dog caught the car, so to speak, between the March feeder cattle and the cash index, which settles in 13 days. Box beef values also continued their rally with the afternoon gains showing choice up $0.65 and select picking up $2.21. Packer margins have now improved as the strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado continues.

Yesterday afternoon, Iowa State University released its February estimates for cattle feeding margins. It showed a 560-pound feeder placed in June returned $568/head, while 750-pound steers placed in September showed a loss of $25/head; this is down $177 from January and $244 weaker than a year ago.

On the charts, April live cattle are challenging resistance near $235. If it can be overcome by a more significant close above that value, then the 78%

retracement at 237.50 is a key level, with major resistance at $240. Yesterday, April feeder cattle pegged the continuation resistance at the 20/MA just above 353. If a setback does not occur from this valuation today, we open the door to a challenge at 357, then 360. On the continuation charts for both live and feeder cattle indications are we are making lower highs and lower lows since early February.