KC wheat firm on southern cold temps, soybeans lower as Trump threatens China meeting delay.

The grain trade opened lower Sunday night, as Pres. Trump said he would be pressing China to help get the Strait of Hormuz open, and if China would not be helpful, he would likely delay his month-end meeting with Pres. Xi and their summit. That put soybeans into a tailspin, with the spot contract back under 1200, as concerns about the 8 MMTs of beans promised in the old crop you would be purchasing could be at risk.

KC wheat futures turned higher in the early morning hours, as temperatures plunged into the teens this morning as far south as the Texas Panhandle, setting up a sharp weather swing for the Plains wheat belt. Forecasts show a rapid warm-up through the week, with conditions expected to turn hot and dry, reaching the mid-90s in some areas by the weekend. As a result, the combination of an early-morning freeze followed by a quick shift toward heat and dryness could put meaningful stress on the crop this week. Areas with more advanced growth stages will be watched most closely, as damage there could affect yield potential if the freeze reaches the developing stem. Moisture after freeze events has always been helpful for production, but that’s not in the cards this week.

Attention in the commodity space will turn to several key macro and demand indicators early this week, starting with today’s release of the NOPA soybean crush report (the trade estimate is for 203-205 Mil Bu). The data will offer another snapshot of domestic soybean demand and processing margins, which remain an important driver for the oilseed complex. At the same time, broader financial markets are focused on the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. While no dramatic policy shift is widely expected, the tone of the discussion could still influence commodity trading by affecting interest rate expectations and overall market sentiment.

The Fed continues to face a mixed economic backdrop. Inflation pressures remain persistent enough to justify holding rates steady for the time being. However, there are also growing indications that the labor market may be losing momentum, which typically strengthens the case for eventual rate cuts. That push and pull between inflation and employment data has left markets searching for direction. Many analysts are increasingly pointing to signs of economic stagnation emerging beneath the surface. If those signals continue to build, they could weigh on broader market confidence and shape trading behavior across commodities in the weeks ahead.

Live and feeder cattle opened sharply lower last week, but recovered modestly, still closing lower on the week and maintaining discounts. Negotiated fed cattle took place mostly in the $235-236 range for the North and the South. Dressed sales came in at $372, which was off $8. Box beef prices had seen choice gaining over $10.00 and select up $12.59. A mixed start is anticipated, with stability in the outside markets lending support. News of the New World Screwworm cases spreading in Mexico, with a total of 9 new cases in the past week, makes it clear that no Mexican border opening will occur anytime soon.

April cattle have built support in the 228-229 range, with 234-235 being upside-down resistance targets. April feeder cattle found support at 339-340. Resistance is layered at 351, with 357 major resistance. The feeder index softened all of last week, with signs of stability there to be watched for early in the week.