The grain trade finds stability in the overnight session.

The grain trade is mixed this morning, with prices within pennies of either side of unchanged. Yesterday’s climactic run in crude oil in the Sunday night session, and the late collapse in the day when Pres. Trump announced that the war would end soon, created weakness in the night session that has since found stability.

Crude all tumbled from a high near 120.00 yesterday to an afternoon session low near 82.00. This was considered a near-record intraday price break that helped the stock market recover. As the volatility continues, crude oil's recovery to back above 90.00 this morning has stock indexes drifting while reinvigorating support for the grain trade. The trade now awaits final confirmation that the G-7 countries coordinate their SPR releases to calm fears of shortages and of recessions getting a foothold, and that at the Strait of Hormuz, traffic will start moving quickly back to regular levels. This is extremely important for getting fertilizer trapped in the Persian Gulf out to the world market.

With yesterday's volatility blowout, basis levels did collapse against grain pricing. We had made our sales across the grain spectrum last week Thursday/Friday, before the break. Any sales now will need to be made against the futures market, with contracts to be held until the basis narrows.

Today at 11:00 CDT is the March WASDE crop report. The key numbers that are mostly being eyeballed will be carryout numbers, with corn at 2.14 Bil Bu, soybeans at 344 Mil Bu, and wheat 925 Mil Bu.

Cattle futures yesterday plummeted on the opening, trading at limit down several times throughout the session until the late announcement before the close that the war could be ending soon. Prompting crude oil to collapse below 90.00. With overnight renewed strength in crude oil and stock indexes softening, this will hamper buying enthusiasm this morning for cattle price recovery.

The cash feeder index was off $0.93 yesterday to $366.39, continuing the trend of feedlots unwilling to chase to chase high replacement numbers. Cash trade for the negotiated market for Fed cattle is expected to remain softer this week, despite choice boxed beef yesterday jumping $4.07 and select up $4.67. The packers are working to cut kills, which is helping reduce losses.

There is no ignoring the technical damage occurring to both the live and feeder cattle charts. Rallies can and will occur, but selling rallies is now becoming a new mantra rather than buying the dips. April live cattle will have resistance at 234-235 on recoveries, with April feeder cattle now dealing with its gap in the 350-351 range as initial resistance. Major resistance is now in place at 360-361.