A lower grain trade greets the start of Thanksgiving Week.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat opened the week under light pressure as overall trade interest remains minimal. A lack of fresh headlines has contributed to the slow pace, but the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday is the bigger driver, with most of this week’s activity expected to occur today and tomorrow.

Positioning ahead of Friday’s first notice day for December contracts is likely to add some volume, but for now, markets are largely in wait-and-see mode.

An interesting development to monitor: reports are surfacing that Argentine soybean sales to China are being arbitraged back to the U.S. for origination. If confirmed, this could be significant for the U.S. soy complex, potentially tightening domestic supplies and boosting demand.

Soybeans remain weighed down by uncertainty surrounding U.S. biofuel policy and inconsistent demand. Grains, meanwhile, are struggling to attract buying interest early in the week. It will be essential to see Chinese flash sales again this week to reignite bullish enthusiasm for China honoring the deal struck at the end of October. China does not recognize Thanksgiving Day, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to get a delayed response on Friday’s shortened session of Chinese buying activity.

On Friday, we received the COF report without any significant surprises. September placements could have been considered negative to expectations, but the October placement numbers were friendly and reflect a November 1 On Feed report, which would be the lowest in seven years. This was expected. 

The headline this morning that will create a lower opening is the scheduled closing of the Lexington, Nebraska, plant on January 20. Tyson Foods made the announcement Friday afternoon and will also limit production at its Amarillo, Texas, plant to one working shift. This gives leverage to the negotiated fed trade with less production capacity.

Last week’s cattle trade was lower, with the dressed trade in the north at $340-347, which was off $4-11 for the week. Meanwhile, live sales were quoted $6-11 lower at $215-219. The South trade was off $4-6 at $222-224. Cattle slaughter last week was up by 7,000 head to 576,000. 208-209 of February live cattle need to prove that it is a low that absorbs all current bearish news. Feeder cattle in the meantime, on the spot, in January will try to hold 310 on a closing basis, with a substantial discount to the cash index that is trading near 239. About the only negative Monkeywrench left to throw at the cattle market is not if, but when the Mexican border opens to resume feeder cattle imports. This is likely a project that will take place sometime in 2026.