Grains retreat from Tuesday's bounce in price.

The grain trade had experienced a firm start in the night session, but as the session progressed, prices eroded. Soybeans drifted as what was supposed to be widely scattered showers developed into a rain-producing thunderstorm in the region of Southern Cordoba/Northern La Pampa into Western Buenos Aires province, affecting some of the most drought-afflicted pockets of the main growing region. This cell was initially forecast as only light showers, but it is outperforming all model runs. While it is unlikely to maintain sufficient moisture to reach the eastern half of the province, it warrants close monitoring given the current moisture deficit.

La Nacion reports that less than 12% of Argentina is experiencing drought, yet much of that drought is affecting the highest-yielding areas of the Pampas. Surprisingly, soybeans are only off around two cents as the evening session ends, and are still trading in the 1060 price range for the spot contract, with the July beans hovering within a dime of 11.00. Strength in soybean oil tipping soybeans afloat.

There is also a developing concern that Brazil’s Safrinha crop will have 23% of its production planted outside the optimum window for high yields. Some of this corn crop is typically seeded later than normal, but historically, only 15% of it is. Corn is also seeing record-high valuations in China, suggesting that, when the new year holiday ends around February 17th, China may enter the corn-buying market, which is supporting global prices. Last week, on Thursday, the USDA reported that 10% of the country’s corn is unusable due to mold and elevated toxicity from wet, adverse harvest conditions.

Ethanol production data will be released later this morning and thoughts are we will see a slight decline from recent weeks. We will soon start to see estimates released ahead of next Tuesday’s WASDE report, and while typically a non-event, in a market that lacks fresh news any input can receive a reaction.

It was reported late yesterday that a horse imported from Argentina for horse breeding tested positive for the New World screwworm. The horse was presented for routine inspection at the equine import facility in Florida, and the inspector observed the open wound with larvae in the animal. The animal was immediately treated and medicated to kill any larvae. Whether this affects the cattle opening is hard to determine, as even mentioning it in the US could create a “sell first, buy later” mentality.

Yesterday’s cattle trade, though, did push to new recovery highs, with the feeder index also up another $0.60 at $375.01. It’s now up $4.00 for the week and on track to test record highs. The beef market was also strong, with choice picking up $2.50 and select almost matching that at a gain of $2.32. February typically sees box beef prices seasonally decline, but with the kills cut so dramatically by the Packers and the January 20 plant closing, that seasonality may be cut off at the pass. The concern today is whether the horse story triggers the algos to enter sell mode, liquidating again more of their longs in the cattle trade to reduce headline risk.