Grains slip slightly amid chatter about new tariffs on Europe.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat are all starting the week under pressure as managed money shifts heavily into outside markets, particularly the metals. Gold has jumped more than $130, and silver is up over $6 in early trade as safe haven buying ramps up amid heightened geopolitical tension. The U.S. dollar is sharply weaker, and equity markets are signaling a heavy sell-off at the open. Note the part about the US dollar being sharply lower, which is currently near 98.32. Breaks below 97.00 start to implement funds having less willingness to be short grains, with the prospect of owning grains as an inflation hedge. Similar to what Argentine farmers do year-round.

The shift in sentiment is being driven by escalating friction between the U.S. and the European Union. President Trump’s renewed push for U.S. control over Greenland has sparked backlash across Europe, with new tariffs announced on eight EU nations opposing the move. This has added fresh uncertainty to the U.S. export outlook and dampened ag sentiment.

Adding pressure is news that China and Canada have finalized a new trade agreement, with reports already indicating resumed canola shipments, raising concerns over lost U.S. market share in Asia. There is hope that the EPA will expand RVOs in their upcoming confirmation, which should come out sometime in March, with implementation by mid-spring.

Weather in South America remains a key factor this week. Crop ratings continue to slide in Argentina due to persistent dryness, weighing on yield expectations. Rains continue to disappoint in Argentina. Brazil is dealing with mixed growing conditions, and while some analysts still forecast decent production, others are dialing back export projections as domestic consumption rises.

With U.S. futures markets still digesting last week’s WASDE data and global tensions intensifying, price action will likely remain choppy as traders look for direction from export demand, South American weather, and macro-political developments.

Live and feeder cattle futures plummeted on Friday amid news of more New World Screwworm cases, much closer to US borders than in the past. Causing fear that it may arrive in the US soon enough. The concern is that this is occurring during the winter months, when it typically remains much farther south. With a sharply lower stock market this morning, a steady softer start is anticipated as the market grapples with the concept that screwworm in the US will or will not happen.

The feeder index of last week gained $2.25 and is at $370.15. Showing the extreme discount that the board is now toying with on the March contracts and forward. (January discount $8.40) Meanwhile, last week's negotiated fed cattle trade occurred late in the week with the north at $232-233.50 and dressed sales at $365. Meanwhile, live sales in the South at Kansas are $1 higher at $233. The five-area average is estimated to be at $232. Cattle slaughter also totaled 562,000 head, a gain of 9,000 for the week, but it is still 39,000 head lower than a year ago.

Live cattle April (new spot contract) has technical support at 231.50-232, with major moving average support at 229.50. March feeder cattle have major support at the 15-day MA, presently 353.55, which has survived previous breaks since the November low on a closing basis. Also, the lowest price for March feeder cattle this month was 353.35. Today’s action will be very defining with the settlements at the end of the day.