Grains try another overnight recovery rally.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat pushed higher overnight as the market continued to recover from Monday’s bearish USDA report. While traders are moving on from the data dump, skepticism lingers, especially over the USDA’s acreage revisions, which many in the trade still view as questionable. With that now behind us, attention is firmly back on South American crop development and incoming yield chatter.

Brazil continues to enjoy mostly favorable growing conditions, and while no concrete yield numbers have surfaced, most analysts describe the soybean crop as “promising.” In contrast, Argentina remains a mixed bag, with concerns mounting over pod fill in key dry areas.

Geopolitical developments are also shaping the tone. Easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran have knocked crude oil sharply lower, down more than $2 overnight, dragging futures back under $60 and squeezing refinery margins. That pressure is spilling into the broader commodity space.

Cash grain markets are showing some split behavior. Export basis is mixed, while interior bids are trending firmer, reflecting farmers' reluctance to move old crop. That said, there has been a slight uptick in new crop sales activity.

Today’s session will be data-heavy. Traders are eyeing the latest export sales numbers, CONAB’s updated Brazilian production forecasts, and the December NOPA crush report. Expectations for crush are pegged around 224.8 million bushels, up 9% from last year’s December number, which would be supportive if confirmed. As for trade policy, markets had been anticipating a U.S. Supreme Court decision on tariffs this week, but that has been delayed, with the ruling now likely to come next week.

After solid closes on Tuesday, the cattle trade went into full correction mode right from the start. For feeder cattle, this is despite the index gaining another $0.57 yesterday to $ 306.69. According to the sale barns, cash index will go to record highs, but according to the board, absolute fear of what is next, whether it is a Mexican border reopening hand, increasing imports of beef, or just outright consumer demand slipping seasonally, has the market continuing this big discount to cash. Next Friday, January 23, is the next cattle on feed report, with Friday, January 30, being the annual Cattle Inventory Report.

Midweek cattle slaughter was put at 352,000 head, a gain of 4,000 from last week’s harvest but 11,000 fewer than a year ago. Box beef values continue to improve, with choice and select hovering near each other as beef has become beef. Resistance for Fed cattle remained at 237.50-238 yesterday, and feeder cattle found themselves back under 360. On the charts, 365-370 is a major target and resistance for the feeder cattle contract.